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Oct 5

FURINA: A Fully Customizable Role-Playing Benchmark via Scalable Multi-Agent Collaboration Pipeline

As large language models (LLMs) advance in role-playing (RP) tasks, existing benchmarks quickly become obsolete due to their narrow scope, outdated interaction paradigms, and limited adaptability across diverse application scenarios. To address this gap, we introduce FURINA-Builder, a novel multi-agent collaboration pipeline that automatically constructs fully customizable RP benchmarks at any scale. It enables evaluation of arbitrary characters across diverse scenarios and prompt formats, as the first benchmark builder in RP area for adaptable assessment. FURINA-Builder simulates dialogues between a test character and other characters drawn from a well-constructed character-scene pool, while an LLM judge selects fine-grained evaluation dimensions and adjusts the test character's responses into final test utterances. Using this pipeline, we build FURINA-Bench, a new comprehensive role-playing benchmark featuring both established and synthesized test characters, each assessed with dimension-specific evaluation criteria. Human evaluation and preliminary separability analysis justify our pipeline and benchmark design. We conduct extensive evaluations of cutting-edge LLMs and find that o3 and DeepSeek-R1 achieve the best performance on English and Chinese RP tasks, respectively. Across all models, established characters consistently outperform synthesized ones, with reasoning capabilities further amplifying this disparity. Interestingly, we observe that model scale does not monotonically reduce hallucinations. More critically, for reasoning LLMs, we uncover a novel trade-off: reasoning improves RP performance but simultaneously increases RP hallucinations. This trade-off extends to a broader Pareto frontier between RP performance and reliability for all LLMs. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of FURINA-Builder and the challenge posed by FURINA-Bench.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025

Differential privacy representation geometry for medical image analysis

Differential privacy (DP)'s effect in medical imaging is typically evaluated only through end-to-end performance, leaving the mechanism of privacy-induced utility loss unclear. We introduce Differential Privacy Representation Geometry for Medical Imaging (DP-RGMI), a framework that interprets DP as a structured transformation of representation space and decomposes performance degradation into encoder geometry and task-head utilization. Geometry is quantified by representation displacement from initialization and spectral effective dimension, while utilization is measured as the gap between linear-probe and end-to-end utility. Across over 594,000 images from four chest X-ray datasets and multiple pretrained initializations, we show that DP is consistently associated with a utilization gap even when linear separability is largely preserved. At the same time, displacement and spectral dimension exhibit non-monotonic, initialization- and dataset-dependent reshaping, indicating that DP alters representation anisotropy rather than uniformly collapsing features. Correlation analysis reveals that the association between end-to-end performance and utilization is robust across datasets but can vary by initialization, while geometric quantities capture additional prior- and dataset-conditioned variation. These findings position DP-RGMI as a reproducible framework for diagnosing privacy-induced failure modes and informing privacy model selection.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 1

Can Pre-trained Networks Detect Familiar Out-of-Distribution Data?

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for safety-sensitive machine learning applications and has been extensively studied, yielding a plethora of methods developed in the literature. However, most studies for OOD detection did not use pre-trained models and trained a backbone from scratch. In recent years, transferring knowledge from large pre-trained models to downstream tasks by lightweight tuning has become mainstream for training in-distribution (ID) classifiers. To bridge the gap between the practice of OOD detection and current classifiers, the unique and crucial problem is that the samples whose information networks know often come as OOD input. We consider that such data may significantly affect the performance of large pre-trained networks because the discriminability of these OOD data depends on the pre-training algorithm. Here, we define such OOD data as PT-OOD (Pre-Trained OOD) data. In this paper, we aim to reveal the effect of PT-OOD on the OOD detection performance of pre-trained networks from the perspective of pre-training algorithms. To achieve this, we explore the PT-OOD detection performance of supervised and self-supervised pre-training algorithms with linear-probing tuning, the most common efficient tuning method. Through our experiments and analysis, we find that the low linear separability of PT-OOD in the feature space heavily degrades the PT-OOD detection performance, and self-supervised models are more vulnerable to PT-OOD than supervised pre-trained models, even with state-of-the-art detection methods. To solve this vulnerability, we further propose a unique solution to large-scale pre-trained models: Leveraging powerful instance-by-instance discriminative representations of pre-trained models and detecting OOD in the feature space independent of the ID decision boundaries. The code will be available via https://github.com/AtsuMiyai/PT-OOD.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1, 2023

Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truth

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 3

Separable neural architectures as a primitive for unified predictive and generative intelligence

Intelligent systems across physics, language and perception often exhibit factorisable structure, yet are typically modelled by monolithic neural architectures that do not explicitly exploit this structure. The separable neural architecture (SNA) addresses this by formalising a representational class that unifies additive, quadratic and tensor-decomposed neural models. By constraining interaction order and tensor rank, SNAs impose a structural inductive bias that factorises high-dimensional mappings into low-arity components. Separability need not be a property of the system itself: it often emerges in the coordinates or representations through which the system is expressed. Crucially, this coordinate-aware formulation reveals a structural analogy between chaotic spatiotemporal dynamics and linguistic autoregression. By treating continuous physical states as smooth, separable embeddings, SNAs enable distributional modelling of chaotic systems. This approach mitigates the nonphysical drift characteristics of deterministic operators whilst remaining applicable to discrete sequences. The compositional versatility of this approach is demonstrated across four domains: autonomous waypoint navigation via reinforcement learning, inverse generation of multifunctional microstructures, distributional modelling of turbulent flow and neural language modelling. These results establish the separable neural architecture as a domain-agnostic primitive for predictive and generative intelligence, capable of unifying both deterministic and distributional representations.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 12

Separating common from salient patterns with Contrastive Representation Learning

Contrastive Analysis is a sub-field of Representation Learning that aims at separating common factors of variation between two datasets, a background (i.e., healthy subjects) and a target (i.e., diseased subjects), from the salient factors of variation, only present in the target dataset. Despite their relevance, current models based on Variational Auto-Encoders have shown poor performance in learning semantically-expressive representations. On the other hand, Contrastive Representation Learning has shown tremendous performance leaps in various applications (classification, clustering, etc.). In this work, we propose to leverage the ability of Contrastive Learning to learn semantically expressive representations well adapted for Contrastive Analysis. We reformulate it under the lens of the InfoMax Principle and identify two Mutual Information terms to maximize and one to minimize. We decompose the first two terms into an Alignment and a Uniformity term, as commonly done in Contrastive Learning. Then, we motivate a novel Mutual Information minimization strategy to prevent information leakage between common and salient distributions. We validate our method, called SepCLR, on three visual datasets and three medical datasets, specifically conceived to assess the pattern separation capability in Contrastive Analysis. Code available at https://github.com/neurospin-projects/2024_rlouiset_sep_clr.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 19, 2024

An Unsupervised Method for Estimating Class Separability of Datasets with Application to LLMs Fine-Tuning

This paper proposes an unsupervised method that leverages topological characteristics of data manifolds to estimate class separability of the data without requiring labels. Experiments conducted in this paper on several datasets demonstrate a clear correlation and consistency between the class separability estimated by the proposed method with supervised metrics like Fisher Discriminant Ratio~(FDR) and cross-validation of a classifier, which both require labels. This can enable implementing learning paradigms aimed at learning from both labeled and unlabeled data, like semi-supervised and transductive learning. This would be particularly useful when we have limited labeled data and a relatively large unlabeled dataset that can be used to enhance the learning process. The proposed method is implemented for language model fine-tuning with automated stopping criterion by monitoring class separability of the embedding-space manifold in an unsupervised setting. The proposed methodology has been first validated on synthetic data, where the results show a clear consistency between class separability estimated by the proposed method and class separability computed by FDR. The method has been also implemented on both public and internal data. The results show that the proposed method can effectively aid -- without the need for labels -- a decision on when to stop or continue the fine-tuning of a language model and which fine-tuning iteration is expected to achieve a maximum classification performance through quantification of the class separability of the embedding manifold.

  • 6 authors
·
May 24, 2023

Probabilistic Partitive Partitioning (PPP)

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 9, 2020

FLARE: Toward Universal Dataset Purification against Backdoor Attacks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are susceptible to backdoor attacks, where adversaries poison datasets with adversary-specified triggers to implant hidden backdoors, enabling malicious manipulation of model predictions. Dataset purification serves as a proactive defense by removing malicious training samples to prevent backdoor injection at its source. We first reveal that the current advanced purification methods rely on a latent assumption that the backdoor connections between triggers and target labels in backdoor attacks are simpler to learn than the benign features. We demonstrate that this assumption, however, does not always hold, especially in all-to-all (A2A) and untargeted (UT) attacks. As a result, purification methods that analyze the separation between the poisoned and benign samples in the input-output space or the final hidden layer space are less effective. We observe that this separability is not confined to a single layer but varies across different hidden layers. Motivated by this understanding, we propose FLARE, a universal purification method to counter various backdoor attacks. FLARE aggregates abnormal activations from all hidden layers to construct representations for clustering. To enhance separation, FLARE develops an adaptive subspace selection algorithm to isolate the optimal space for dividing an entire dataset into two clusters. FLARE assesses the stability of each cluster and identifies the cluster with higher stability as poisoned. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of FLARE against 22 representative backdoor attacks, including all-to-one (A2O), all-to-all (A2A), and untargeted (UT) attacks, and its robustness to adaptive attacks. Codes are available at https://github.com/THUYimingLi/BackdoorBox{BackdoorBox} and https://github.com/vtu81/backdoor-toolbox{backdoor-toolbox}.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 29, 2024

Geometric Ceilings on Time-Frequency Masking for Single-Channel Separation

Most single-channel separators estimate a source by applying a real gain to the mixture in each time-frequency bin. The optimum of that format, which the oracle masks used as bounds do not attain, is the orthogonal projection of the source onto the line spanned by the mixture, its residual set by the angle between them. Locating an estimator reduces to the block structure of a real-linear operator on stacked spectra, giving a chain of four nested classes whose three larger terms match three assumptions on the prior: zero means, circularity and absence of inter-frequency coupling. Held fixed the chain is a cascade of four orthogonal projections; refitted per frame it collapses onto its first term, attributing the whole residual to one missing real parameter per bin, the phase. When the phase posterior is symmetric about the mixture direction, the minimum mean-square estimate falls back onto the line, with gain the posterior mean of the oracle gain and excess error its variance. On MUSDB18 a posterior mean under a non-circular Gaussian-mixture prior leaves the class yet stays 11.44 dB under the per-frame ceiling, which four times as many components and 7.5x the data do not close; a closed-form gate attributes some 70% of it, in decibels, to the predicted variance. The widest fixed class stays 6.70 dB under the same ceiling. Leaving the class and minimising squared error are conflicting requests: the barrier lies in the criterion rather than in the prior.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 2

CLAMS: A Cluster Ambiguity Measure for Estimating Perceptual Variability in Visual Clustering

Visual clustering is a common perceptual task in scatterplots that supports diverse analytics tasks (e.g., cluster identification). However, even with the same scatterplot, the ways of perceiving clusters (i.e., conducting visual clustering) can differ due to the differences among individuals and ambiguous cluster boundaries. Although such perceptual variability casts doubt on the reliability of data analysis based on visual clustering, we lack a systematic way to efficiently assess this variability. In this research, we study perceptual variability in conducting visual clustering, which we call Cluster Ambiguity. To this end, we introduce CLAMS, a data-driven visual quality measure for automatically predicting cluster ambiguity in monochrome scatterplots. We first conduct a qualitative study to identify key factors that affect the visual separation of clusters (e.g., proximity or size difference between clusters). Based on study findings, we deploy a regression module that estimates the human-judged separability of two clusters. Then, CLAMS predicts cluster ambiguity by analyzing the aggregated results of all pairwise separability between clusters that are generated by the module. CLAMS outperforms widely-used clustering techniques in predicting ground truth cluster ambiguity. Meanwhile, CLAMS exhibits performance on par with human annotators. We conclude our work by presenting two applications for optimizing and benchmarking data mining techniques using CLAMS. The interactive demo of CLAMS is available at clusterambiguity.dev.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 1, 2023

UniHDSA: A Unified Relation Prediction Approach for Hierarchical Document Structure Analysis

Document structure analysis, aka document layout analysis, is crucial for understanding both the physical layout and logical structure of documents, serving information retrieval, document summarization, knowledge extraction, etc. Hierarchical Document Structure Analysis (HDSA) specifically aims to restore the hierarchical structure of documents created using authoring software with hierarchical schemas. Previous research has primarily followed two approaches: one focuses on tackling specific subtasks of HDSA in isolation, such as table detection or reading order prediction, while the other adopts a unified framework that uses multiple branches or modules, each designed to address a distinct task. In this work, we propose a unified relation prediction approach for HDSA, called UniHDSA, which treats various HDSA sub-tasks as relation prediction problems and consolidates relation prediction labels into a unified label space. This allows a single relation prediction module to handle multiple tasks simultaneously, whether at a page-level or document-level structure analysis. To validate the effectiveness of UniHDSA, we develop a multimodal end-to-end system based on Transformer architectures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on a hierarchical document structure analysis benchmark, Comp-HRDoc, and competitive results on a large-scale document layout analysis dataset, DocLayNet, effectively illustrating the superiority of our method across all sub-tasks. The Comp-HRDoc benchmark and UniHDSA's configurations are publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/CompHRDoc.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20, 2025 2

Zero-shot Audio Source Separation through Query-based Learning from Weakly-labeled Data

Deep learning techniques for separating audio into different sound sources face several challenges. Standard architectures require training separate models for different types of audio sources. Although some universal separators employ a single model to target multiple sources, they have difficulty generalizing to unseen sources. In this paper, we propose a three-component pipeline to train a universal audio source separator from a large, but weakly-labeled dataset: AudioSet. First, we propose a transformer-based sound event detection system for processing weakly-labeled training data. Second, we devise a query-based audio separation model that leverages this data for model training. Third, we design a latent embedding processor to encode queries that specify audio targets for separation, allowing for zero-shot generalization. Our approach uses a single model for source separation of multiple sound types, and relies solely on weakly-labeled data for training. In addition, the proposed audio separator can be used in a zero-shot setting, learning to separate types of audio sources that were never seen in training. To evaluate the separation performance, we test our model on MUSDB18, while training on the disjoint AudioSet. We further verify the zero-shot performance by conducting another experiment on audio source types that are held-out from training. The model achieves comparable Source-to-Distortion Ratio (SDR) performance to current supervised models in both cases.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 15, 2021

Capability from Access Structure, Not Scale: Lower Bounds and Pre-Registered Tests for Hybrid Sequence Models

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) holds that as models scale, representations of heterogeneous networks converge toward a shared model of reality. We propose its sequel and boundary, the Capability Convergence Hypothesis (CCH): under a fixed per-token inference budget, representational convergence does not entail capability convergence. Capability instead converges toward a class, the access-complete hybrid: any architecture holding both a compressive O(1)-state channel and a scalable verbatim-index channel. We anchor it on a witness task, the Newton's-apple problem in an infinite stream, and name three resource walls: a Shannon wall barring any o(Nb)-state architecture, a horizon wall barring any fixed window, and a circuit wall barring fixed-depth attention-only composition (conditional on TC0 != NC1). Under an explicit separability assumption a hybrid crosses all three by paying each wall's price, so capability is strictly super-additive under composition. We separate what we prove from what we conjecture: the access-completeness principle rests on information-theoretic lower bounds and pre-registered experiments, while the field-level convergence trend is an economics-motivated conjecture. We report the first pre-registered small-scale tests under criteria frozen before the data: the predicted scissors gap is measured (exact-retrieval error 0.994 vs. 0.000 once a 64-scalar state gains one global-attention layer), the state-tracking bifurcation lands at the registered boundary, and a conjunction witness shows an irreducibly two-channel solution; one prediction failed with its direction reversed and is reported as such. Representational convergence is given freely by scale; capability convergence must be purchased by access structure.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 13 1

SphOR: A Representation Learning Perspective on Open-set Recognition for Identifying Unknown Classes in Deep Learning Models

The reliance on Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based classifiers in safety-critical and real-world applications necessitates Open-Set Recognition (OSR). OSR enables the identification of input data from classes unknown during training as unknown, as opposed to misclassifying them as belonging to a known class. DNNs consist of a feature extraction backbone and classifier head; however, most OSR methods typically train both components jointly, often yielding feature representations that adapt poorly to unknown data. Other approaches employ off-the-shelf objectives, such as supervised contrastive learning, which are not specifically designed for OSR. To address these limitations, we propose SpHOR, which explicitly shapes the feature space via supervised representation learning, before training a classifier. Instead of relying on generic feature learning, SpHOR custom-designs representation learning for OSR through three key innovations: (1) enforcing discriminative class-specific features via orthogonal label embeddings, ensuring clearer separation between classes. (2) imposing a spherical constraint, modeling representations as a mixture of von Mises-Fisher distributions. (3) integrating Mixup and Label Smoothing (LS) directly into the representation learning stage. To quantify how these techniques enhance representations for OSR, we introduce two metrics: the Angular Separability (AS) and Norm Separability (NS). Combining all three innovations, SpHOR achieves state-of-the-art results (in AUROC and OSCR) across various coarse-grained and fine-grained open-set benchmarks, particularly excelling on the Semantic Shift Benchmark with improvements up to 5.1\%. Code at https://github.com/nadarasarbahavan/SpHOR

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 21

Information Shapes Koopman Representation

The Koopman operator provides a powerful framework for modeling dynamical systems and has attracted growing interest from the machine learning community. However, its infinite-dimensional nature makes identifying suitable finite-dimensional subspaces challenging, especially for deep architectures. We argue that these difficulties come from suboptimal representation learning, where latent variables fail to balance expressivity and simplicity. This tension is closely related to the information bottleneck (IB) dilemma: constructing compressed representations that are both compact and predictive. Rethinking Koopman learning through this lens, we demonstrate that latent mutual information promotes simplicity, yet an overemphasis on simplicity may cause latent space to collapse onto a few dominant modes. In contrast, expressiveness is sustained by the von Neumann entropy, which prevents such collapse and encourages mode diversity. This insight leads us to propose an information-theoretic Lagrangian formulation that explicitly balances this tradeoff. Furthermore, we propose a new algorithm based on the Lagrangian formulation that encourages both simplicity and expressiveness, leading to a stable and interpretable Koopman representation. Beyond quantitative evaluations, we further visualize the learned manifolds under our representations, observing empirical results consistent with our theoretical predictions. Finally, we validate our approach across a diverse range of dynamical systems, demonstrating improved performance over existing Koopman learning methods. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Wenxuan52/InformationKoopman.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 14, 2025

Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 2, 2022

Excess Separability: Nuisance-Controlled Residual-Stream Probing for Benchmark Contamination Detection

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 15

Representation Transitions Reveal Predictive Structure in Complex Systems: A Trajectory-Level Reconstruction in a Critical System

Trajectories in complex systems often contain structure that is not captured by the population-averaged, scalar statistics traditionally used to describe them. Here we reconstruct, through independent numerical re-simulation rather than literature review, a systematic search across representational forms - from single scalar statistics, through two independent discrete multi-feature classification attempts, to a trajectory-level structural representation and a diagnostic surrogate test, to a continuous low-dimensional compression - applied to the same underlying trajectory ensemble in a critical complex system. Predictive failure is not explained by insufficient correlation: one discrete representation's own strongest individual feature correlates with the target more strongly (r=0.588) than the eventual successful representation's own headline statistic (r=0.540), yet fails to separate the ensemble's two most consequential cases - while the continuous representation succeeds, robustly, across eight independent scale-removal folds (r=0.677-0.717, all p<0.001). The determining factor was not correlation strength but whether the representation preserved the structure relevant to prediction. These results indicate that the choice of representation determines whether predictive structure in complex systems becomes accessible - a scientific variable in its own right, not a downstream analysis choice.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 29

Shadow loss: Memory-linear deep metric learning for efficient training

Deep metric learning objectives (e.g., triplet loss) require storing and comparing high-dimensional embeddings, making the per-batch loss buffer scale as O(Scdot D), where S is the number of samples in a batch and D is the feature dimension, thus limiting training on memory-constrained hardware. We propose Shadow Loss, a proxy-free, parameter-free objective that measures similarity via scalar projections onto the anchor direction, reducing the loss-specific buffer from O(Scdot D) to O(S) while preserving the triplet structure. We analyze gradients, provide a Lipschitz continuity bound, and show that Shadow Loss penalizes trivial collapse for stable optimization. Across fine-grained retrieval (CUB-200, CARS196), large-scale product retrieval (Stanford Online Products, In-Shop Clothes), and standard/medical benchmarks (CIFAR-10/100, Tiny-ImageNet, HAM-10K, ODIR-5K), Shadow Loss consistently outperforms recent objectives (Triplet, Soft-Margin Triplet, Angular Triplet, SoftTriple, Multi-Similarity). It also converges in approx 1.5-2times fewer epochs under identical backbones and mining. Furthermore, it improves representation separability as measured by higher silhouette scores. The design is architecture-agnostic and vectorized for efficient implementation. By decoupling discriminative power from embedding dimensionality and reusing batch dot-products, Shadow Loss enables memory-linear training and faster convergence, making deep metric learning practical on both edge and large-scale systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 16

Polynomial-Time Optimal Group Selection via the Double-Commutator Eigenvalue Problem

The algebraic diversity framework generalizes temporal averaging over multiple observations to algebraic group action on a single observation for second-order statistical estimation. The central open problem in this framework is group selection: given an M-dimensional observation with unknown covariance structure, find the finite group whose spectral decomposition best matches the covariance. Naive enumeration of all subgroups of the symmetric group S_M requires exponential time in M. We prove that this combinatorial problem reduces to a generalized eigenvalue problem derived from the double commutator of the covariance matrix, yielding a polynomial-time algorithm with complexity O(d^2M^2 + d^3), where d is the dimension of a generator basis. The minimum eigenvector of the double-commutator matrix directly constructs the optimal group generator in closed form, with no iterative optimization. The reduction is exact: the double-commutator minimum eigenvalue is zero if and only if the optimal generator lies in the span of the basis, and its magnitude provides a certifiable optimality gap when it does not. This problem does not appear in the standard catalogs of computational complexity (Garey and Johnson, 1979) and represents a new class linking group theory, matrix analysis, and statistical estimation. We establish connections to independent component analysis (JADE), structured matrix nearness problems, and simultaneous matrix diagonalization, and we show that the double-commutator formulation is the unique approach that is simultaneously polynomial-time, closed-form, and certifiable. We extend the framework to non-Abelian symmetry recovery via a Sequential GEVP with deflation, and add two identifiability theorems characterizing the commutant-lattice ambiguity and the dichotomy on whether Aut(R) recovers a generative subgroup or only a supergroup.

  • 1 authors
·
May 7

Advances in Speech Separation: Techniques, Challenges, and Future Trends

The field of speech separation, addressing the "cocktail party problem", has seen revolutionary advances with DNNs. Speech separation enhances clarity in complex acoustic environments and serves as crucial pre-processing for speech recognition and speaker recognition. However, current literature focuses narrowly on specific architectures or isolated approaches, creating fragmented understanding. This survey addresses this gap by providing systematic examination of DNN-based speech separation techniques. Our work differentiates itself through: (I) Comprehensive perspective: We systematically investigate learning paradigms, separation scenarios with known/unknown speakers, comparative analysis of supervised/self-supervised/unsupervised frameworks, and architectural components from encoders to estimation strategies. (II) Timeliness: Coverage of cutting-edge developments ensures access to current innovations and benchmarks. (III) Unique insights: Beyond summarization, we evaluate technological trajectories, identify emerging patterns, and highlight promising directions including domain-robust frameworks, efficient architectures, multimodal integration, and novel self-supervised paradigms. (IV) Fair evaluation: We provide quantitative evaluations on standard datasets, revealing true capabilities and limitations of different methods. This comprehensive survey serves as an accessible reference for experienced researchers and newcomers navigating speech separation's complex landscape.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 14, 2025 2

DecoupleMix: Decoupled Ratio Search and Convex Allocation for Scalable VLM Data Recipes

While data curation for Vision Language Models (VLMs) is increasingly active, public practice for constructing pretraining mixtures remains largely heuristic: practitioners stack datasets that pass quality filters, set cross-domain ratios by intuition, and lack a principled, attributable criterion for admitting new data, while frontier recipes remain undisclosed. We formulate data construction as a systematic mixture-optimization problem and turn it into a reproducible engineering discipline by decoupling the mixture into two orthogonal sub-problems: inter-class ratios across capabilities and intra-class ratios within a category. For inter-class allocation, we use a single-variable iterative search; for intra-class composition, we apply a multidimensional, dataset-level assessment scoring Quality and Difficulty, and formulate selection as a constrained convex optimization with a diversity objective. The DecoupleMix framework delivers two critical capabilities: guiding what data to collect next and rendering dataset validation a controlled, attributable experiment. Experiments show our approach consistently surpasses heuristic baselines. Moreover, optimal ratios discovered on small-scale proxies transfer seamlessly to larger scales without retuning. Using 80B additional multimodal continue-pretraining tokens, our VLM is competitive with strong open-source models trained with substantially larger multimodal budgets.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 26 2

Capability-Guided Compression: Toward Interpretability-Aware Budget Allocation for Large Language Models

Large language model compression has made substantial progress through pruning, quantization, and low-rank decomposition, yet a fundamental limitation persists across all existing methods: compression budgets are allocated without any representation of what individual model components functionally encode. We term this the capability-blind compression problem and argue it is a root cause of two well-documented failures -- the insensitivity of perplexity-based evaluation to reasoning capability loss, and the abrupt phase transitions in model performance recently characterized by Ma et al. (2026). We propose Capability-Guided Compression (CGC), a framework that addresses this by using Sparse Autoencoder (SAE)-derived capability density maps to allocate differential compression budgets across transformer components. Capability density is a formally defined scalar measure combining the feature breadth, activation entropy, and cross-input consistency of a component's SAE feature activation distribution. We prove theoretically that components with higher capability density exhibit lower structural redundancy and reach their individual phase transition points at lower compression ratios, providing the first pre-compression mechanism for component-level phase transition prediction. Experiments on GPT-2 Medium confirm that capability density is statistically independent of Wanda importance scores (Spearman rho = -0.054, n = 384 heads), establishing it as a genuinely novel compression signal orthogonal to all existing importance metrics. We report a negative result on PPL-based compression comparison and provide a principled diagnosis identifying GPT-2 Medium as an insufficient test bed for the full CGC hypothesis. The theoretical framework, density formalism, and orthogonality finding constitute a foundation for capability-aware compression research.

  • 1 authors
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Mar 16

Low-Interaction-Rank Learning: Unifying Multiplicative Dual-Encoder Heads

A multiplicative dual-encoder network computes a real-valued output for a pair of inputs as the inner product of their separate encodings. This architecture has been developed independently in operator learning, bipartite matching, contrastive vision-language models, retrieval, and other areas, yet no unified theory guides the basic design decisions: how many interaction modes to represent, how to normalize the encoders, and when the architecture should be avoided. We provide such a foundation by introducing the class of functions of low interaction rank, a class whose intrinsic complexity is measured by its interaction spectrum. Within this framework, approximation error decomposes into a spectral truncation term and an encoder-realization term; sample complexity is governed by the sum of the two encoder complexities rather than their product; and a usability criterion based on spectral decay determines when the architecture can succeed. The same framework exposes a central identifiability problem: the encoders are defined only up to a linear gauge symmetry that leaves the learned coordinates arbitrary. We show that normalization is gauge fixing and that whitening pins the interaction modes up to permutation and sign, thereby explaining the uninterpretability of contrastive dimensions and providing a constructive remedy. Experiments on synthetic kernels, operator learning, and CLIP models validate the theoretical predictions: spectral decay rates match the predicted scaling, whitening recovers the true modes, and independently trained CLIP models are related by a single rotation which, after removal by whitening, exposes interpretable concept axes. The code of this paper is provided at https://github.com/RS2002/Mul-Net .

  • 2 authors
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Aug 11

Evaluating Sparse Autoencoders for Monosemantic Representation

A key barrier to interpreting large language models is polysemanticity, where neurons activate for multiple unrelated concepts. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have been proposed to mitigate this issue by transforming dense activations into sparse, more interpretable features. While prior work suggests that SAEs promote monosemanticity, no quantitative comparison has examined how concept activation distributions differ between SAEs and their base models. This paper provides the first systematic evaluation of SAEs against base models through activation distribution lens. We introduce a fine-grained concept separability score based on the Jensen-Shannon distance, which captures how distinctly a neuron's activation distributions vary across concepts. Using two large language models (Gemma-2-2B and DeepSeek-R1) and multiple SAE variants across five datasets (including word-level and sentence-level), we show that SAEs reduce polysemanticity and achieve higher concept separability. To assess practical utility, we evaluate concept-level interventions using two strategies: full neuron masking and partial suppression. We find that, compared to base models, SAEs enable more precise concept-level control when using partial suppression. Building on this, we propose Attenuation via Posterior Probabilities (APP), a new intervention method that uses concept-conditioned activation distributions for targeted suppression. APP achieves the smallest perplexity increase while remaining highly effective at concept removal.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 20, 2025

A Framework for Fast and Stable Representations of Multiparameter Persistent Homology Decompositions

Topological data analysis (TDA) is an area of data science that focuses on using invariants from algebraic topology to provide multiscale shape descriptors for geometric data sets such as point clouds. One of the most important such descriptors is {\em persistent homology}, which encodes the change in shape as a filtration parameter changes; a typical parameter is the feature scale. For many data sets, it is useful to simultaneously vary multiple filtration parameters, for example feature scale and density. While the theoretical properties of single parameter persistent homology are well understood, less is known about the multiparameter case. In particular, a central question is the problem of representing multiparameter persistent homology by elements of a vector space for integration with standard machine learning algorithms. Existing approaches to this problem either ignore most of the multiparameter information to reduce to the one-parameter case or are heuristic and potentially unstable in the face of noise. In this article, we introduce a new general representation framework that leverages recent results on {\em decompositions} of multiparameter persistent homology. This framework is rich in information, fast to compute, and encompasses previous approaches. Moreover, we establish theoretical stability guarantees under this framework as well as efficient algorithms for practical computation, making this framework an applicable and versatile tool for analyzing geometric and point cloud data. We validate our stability results and algorithms with numerical experiments that demonstrate statistical convergence, prediction accuracy, and fast running times on several real data sets.

Limits and Powers of Koopman Learning

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 8, 2024

Subspace-Aware Sparse Autoencoders for Effective Mechanistic Interpretability

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used for mechanistic interpretability in large language models, yet their formulation assigns each latent feature a single decoder direction, implicitly assuming features to be one-dimensional. We show that this assumption mismatches with the multi-dimensional structure of model features, provably inducing feature splitting through two distinct mechanisms. Geometrically, reconstructing a feature of intrinsic dimension d_i ge 2 to error varepsilon with single-direction decoders forces a number of atoms that is exponential in d_i. From an end-to-end optimization perspective, this splitting is not merely possible but actively preferred. We prove that there exists a continuous path from the true d_i-dimensional basis to a strictly lower risk of the ell_1-regularized SAE objective, whose descent directions drive any trained dictionary into that exponential regime. A single coherent feature is therefore fragmented across many near-collinear latents, producing spurious multiplicity and obscuring the intrinsic geometry. Motivated by this, we introduce Subspace-Aware Sparse Autoencoders (SASA), which replace single-vector decoders with learned decoder subspaces, enforce block sparsity via Top-s group gating, and adapt each group's effective rank with a nuclear-norm regularizer. We then show that once the block size satisfies r ge d_i, a single group not only can represent the entire feature slice but is the global minimizer of the SASA objective. This consolidation yields a sample complexity polynomial in d_i rather than exponential -- a decisive advantage given that every training activation costs an LLM forward pass. Empirically, on GPT-2 and Mistral-7B, SASA reduces feature splitting and absorption, improves monosemanticity and interpretability, and matches or exceeds standard SAEs while training on roughly half the token budget.

  • 2 authors
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Jun 3

Interpretable-by-Design Transformers via Architectural Stream Independence

While transformers achieve strong performance, their internal decision-making processes remain opaque. We investigate whether architectural constraints can enforce interpretability by design through architectural stream independence: maintaining a token stream (carrying symbolic structure) and contextual semantics in separated streams that remain independently observable throughout processing, with integration delayed until output. We validate this principle through the Late Fusion Architecture (LFA), which demonstrates interpretable symbolic heads through all the final layers, while standard transformers show dissolution by the third of six layers; we quantify this effect by introducing the Token-Position Dependence Score (PDS), with PDS_{max} = 0.276 and 0.058, respectively. Crucially, intervention experiments demonstrate functional modularity: suppressing LFA's recency heads causes minimal semantic damage (Cohen's d = -0.158) versus catastrophic entanglement in baselines (d = -0.672). LFA demonstrates that architectural constraints improve underlying learning mechanisms, averaging 42% stability versus 19% and 11% for baseline comparisons, with extremes from 50% on LFA's best pairs (6 of 12 heads position-invariant) down to 0% complete collapse in over-constrained cases. By preventing premature entanglement, architectural independence steers models toward semantic understanding over positional heuristics, establishing interpretability as an architectural design criterion enforceable through structural constraints rather than post-hoc analysis.

  • 2 authors
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Mar 8

Imbalanced Adversarial Training with Reweighting

Adversarial training has been empirically proven to be one of the most effective and reliable defense methods against adversarial attacks. However, almost all existing studies about adversarial training are focused on balanced datasets, where each class has an equal amount of training examples. Research on adversarial training with imbalanced training datasets is rather limited. As the initial effort to investigate this problem, we reveal the facts that adversarially trained models present two distinguished behaviors from naturally trained models in imbalanced datasets: (1) Compared to natural training, adversarially trained models can suffer much worse performance on under-represented classes, when the training dataset is extremely imbalanced. (2) Traditional reweighting strategies may lose efficacy to deal with the imbalance issue for adversarial training. For example, upweighting the under-represented classes will drastically hurt the model's performance on well-represented classes, and as a result, finding an optimal reweighting value can be tremendously challenging. In this paper, to further understand our observations, we theoretically show that the poor data separability is one key reason causing this strong tension between under-represented and well-represented classes. Motivated by this finding, we propose Separable Reweighted Adversarial Training (SRAT) to facilitate adversarial training under imbalanced scenarios, by learning more separable features for different classes. Extensive experiments on various datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  • 6 authors
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Jul 28, 2021

Principled Reflection Separation via Nonlinear Superposition and Feature Interaction

Single-image reflection separation is fundamentally challenged by the entanglement of transmission and reflection layers under complex image formation processes. Existing approaches largely rely on simplified assumptions or independent modeling, limiting their ability to handle real-world scenarios. In this work, we revisit the problem from a unified perspective and identify a key issue of existing approaches, i.e., the widely adopted linear composition model in the sRGB domain fails to capture the nonlinear coupling introduced by real-world image signal processing pipelines. To address this, we introduce a learnable nonlinear superposition model that more faithfully characterizes layer interactions and improves decomposition fidelity. Building upon this formulation, we propose a generalized dual-stream interactive framework that explicitly models bidirectional dependencies between transmission and reflection through feature exchange. This framework unifies activation-, gating-, and attention-based interaction mechanisms, and is compatible with both CNN and Transformer backbones. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves superior performance with strong generalization capability. More importantly, our study reveals that reflection separation is not about undoing a linear mixture, but about learning nonlinear formation and interaction}, offering new insights into the design of principled image decomposition models. Code and models are publicly available at https://mingcv.github.io/DIRS-Page.

  • 4 authors
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May 31

On the Failure of Topic-Matched Contrast Baselines in Multi-Directional Refusal Abliteration

Inasmuch as the removal of refusal behavior from instruction-tuned language models by directional abliteration requires the extraction of refusal-mediating directions from the residual stream activation space, and inasmuch as the construction of the contrast baseline against which harmful prompt activations are compared has been treated in the existing literature as an implementation detail rather than a methodological concern, the present work investigates whether a topically matched contrast baseline yields superior refusal directions. The investigation is carried out on the Qwen~3.5 2B model using per-category matched prompt pairs, per-class Self-Organizing Map extraction, and Singular Value Decomposition orthogonalization. It was found that topic-matched contrast produces no functional refusal directions at any tested weight level on any tested layer, while unmatched contrast on the same model, same extraction code, and same evaluation protocol achieves complete refusal elimination on six layers. The geometric analysis of the failure establishes that topic-matched subtraction cancels the dominant activation component shared between harmful and harmless prompts of the same subject, reducing the extracted direction magnitude below the threshold at which weight-matrix projection perturbs the residual stream. The implications for the design of contrast baselines in abliteration research are discussed.

  • 1 authors
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Mar 22

ClusterNet: A Perception-Based Clustering Model for Scattered Data

Visualizations for scattered data are used to make users understand certain attributes of their data by solving different tasks, e.g. correlation estimation, outlier detection, cluster separation. In this paper, we focus on the later task, and develop a technique that is aligned to human perception, that can be used to understand how human subjects perceive clusterings in scattered data and possibly optimize for better understanding. Cluster separation in scatterplots is a task that is typically tackled by widely used clustering techniques, such as for instance k-means or DBSCAN. However, as these algorithms are based on non-perceptual metrics, we can show in our experiments, that their output do not reflect human cluster perception. We propose a learning strategy which directly operates on scattered data. To learn perceptual cluster separation on this data, we crowdsourced a large scale dataset, consisting of 7,320 point-wise cluster affiliations for bivariate data, which has been labeled by 384 human crowd workers. Based on this data, we were able to train ClusterNet, a point-based deep learning model, trained to reflect human perception of cluster separability. In order to train ClusterNet on human annotated data, we use a PointNet++ architecture enabling inference on point clouds directly. In this work, we provide details on how we collected our dataset, report statistics of the resulting annotations, and investigate perceptual agreement of cluster separation for real-world data. We further report the training and evaluation protocol of ClusterNet and introduce a novel metric, that measures the accuracy between a clustering technique and a group of human annotators. Finally, we compare our approach against existing state-of-the-art clustering techniques and can show, that ClusterNet is able to generalize to unseen and out of scope data.

  • 5 authors
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Apr 27, 2023

Almost-Linear RNNs Yield Highly Interpretable Symbolic Codes in Dynamical Systems Reconstruction

Dynamical systems (DS) theory is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS separated by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and R\"ossler systems, AL-RNNs discover, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

  • 4 authors
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Oct 18, 2024

Understanding the Behaviour of Contrastive Loss

Unsupervised contrastive learning has achieved outstanding success, while the mechanism of contrastive loss has been less studied. In this paper, we concentrate on the understanding of the behaviours of unsupervised contrastive loss. We will show that the contrastive loss is a hardness-aware loss function, and the temperature {\tau} controls the strength of penalties on hard negative samples. The previous study has shown that uniformity is a key property of contrastive learning. We build relations between the uniformity and the temperature {\tau} . We will show that uniformity helps the contrastive learning to learn separable features, however excessive pursuit to the uniformity makes the contrastive loss not tolerant to semantically similar samples, which may break the underlying semantic structure and be harmful to the formation of features useful for downstream tasks. This is caused by the inherent defect of the instance discrimination objective. Specifically, instance discrimination objective tries to push all different instances apart, ignoring the underlying relations between samples. Pushing semantically consistent samples apart has no positive effect for acquiring a prior informative to general downstream tasks. A well-designed contrastive loss should have some extents of tolerance to the closeness of semantically similar samples. Therefore, we find that the contrastive loss meets a uniformity-tolerance dilemma, and a good choice of temperature can compromise these two properties properly to both learn separable features and tolerant to semantically similar samples, improving the feature qualities and the downstream performances.

  • 2 authors
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Dec 15, 2020

Weakly-supervised Audio Separation via Bi-modal Semantic Similarity

Conditional sound separation in multi-source audio mixtures without having access to single source sound data during training is a long standing challenge. Existing mix-and-separate based methods suffer from significant performance drop with multi-source training mixtures due to the lack of supervision signal for single source separation cases during training. However, in the case of language-conditional audio separation, we do have access to corresponding text descriptions for each audio mixture in our training data, which can be seen as (rough) representations of the audio samples in the language modality. To this end, in this paper, we propose a generic bi-modal separation framework which can enhance the existing unsupervised frameworks to separate single-source signals in a target modality (i.e., audio) using the easily separable corresponding signals in the conditioning modality (i.e., language), without having access to single-source samples in the target modality during training. We empirically show that this is well within reach if we have access to a pretrained joint embedding model between the two modalities (i.e., CLAP). Furthermore, we propose to incorporate our framework into two fundamental scenarios to enhance separation performance. First, we show that our proposed methodology significantly improves the performance of purely unsupervised baselines by reducing the distribution shift between training and test samples. In particular, we show that our framework can achieve 71% boost in terms of Signal-to-Distortion Ratio (SDR) over the baseline, reaching 97.5% of the supervised learning performance. Second, we show that we can further improve the performance of the supervised learning itself by 17% if we augment it by our proposed weakly-supervised framework, that enables a powerful semi-supervised framework for audio separation.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 2, 2024

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 4, 2025