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Oct 9

Predicting Users' Value Changes by the Friends' Influence from Social Media Usage

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 12, 2021

Insights from the ICLR Peer Review and Rebuttal Process

Peer review is a cornerstone of scientific publishing, including at premier machine learning conferences such as ICLR. As submission volumes increase, understanding the nature and dynamics of the review process is crucial for improving its efficiency, effectiveness, and the quality of published papers. We present a large-scale analysis of the ICLR 2024 and 2025 peer review processes, focusing on before- and after-rebuttal scores and reviewer-author interactions. We examine review scores, author-reviewer engagement, temporal patterns in review submissions, and co-reviewer influence effects. Combining quantitative analyses with LLM-based categorization of review texts and rebuttal discussions, we identify common strengths and weaknesses for each rating group, as well as trends in rebuttal strategies that are most strongly associated with score changes. Our findings show that initial scores and the ratings of co-reviewers are the strongest predictors of score changes during the rebuttal, pointing to a degree of reviewer influence. Rebuttals play a valuable role in improving outcomes for borderline papers, where thoughtful author responses can meaningfully shift reviewer perspectives. More broadly, our study offers evidence-based insights to improve the peer review process, guiding authors on effective rebuttal strategies and helping the community design fairer and more efficient review processes. Our code and score changes data are available at https://github.com/papercopilot/iclr-insights.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 19, 2025 2

Model as a Game: On Numerical and Spatial Consistency for Generative Games

Recent advances in generative models have significantly impacted game generation. However, despite producing high-quality graphics and adequately receiving player input, existing models often fail to maintain fundamental game properties such as numerical and spatial consistency. Numerical consistency ensures gameplay mechanics correctly reflect score changes and other quantitative elements, while spatial consistency prevents jarring scene transitions, providing seamless player experiences. In this paper, we revisit the paradigm of generative games to explore what truly constitutes a Model as a Game (MaaG) with a well-developed mechanism. We begin with an empirical study on ``Traveler'', a 2D game created by an LLM featuring minimalist rules yet challenging generative models in maintaining consistency. Based on the DiT architecture, we design two specialized modules: (1) a numerical module that integrates a LogicNet to determine event triggers, with calculations processed externally as conditions for image generation; and (2) a spatial module that maintains a map of explored areas, retrieving location-specific information during generation and linking new observations to ensure continuity. Experiments across three games demonstrate that our integrated modules significantly enhance performance on consistency metrics compared to baselines, while incurring minimal time overhead during inference.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 27, 2025

Agentic Reinforcement Learning with Observation-Calibrated Self-Distillation

Large language model agents are commonly trained through reinforcement learning with sparse trajectory-level rewards, which offer limited guidance on how strongly individual tokens should be updated. On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD) addresses this by re-scoring generated tokens under a privileged replay view to obtain dense, token-level supervision. However, we identify a confounding issue: the resulting support may reflect both the privileged information contained in the replay view and score shifts induced by the replay scaffold, making it difficult to attribute the support specifically to that information. This issue is especially pronounced when future environment observations serve as privileged information, since replaying them requires reconstructing an extended scaffold that itself perturbs token scores. To resolve this confounding, we propose Observation-Calibrated Self-Distillation (OCSD), which contrasts two structurally matched replay views, Full and Observation-Ablated, differing only in whether the actual future observation is present, to derive an observation residual that discounts score changes shared by the replay scaffold. OCSD then applies this residual to modulate token-level GRPO updates at high-uncertainty steps, while preserving the trajectory-level update direction. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-QA across three Qwen3 model scales show that OCSD consistently outperforms strong baselines. Diagnostic analyses further confirm that the calibrated residual aligns better with local environment feedback. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yiy1x/OCSD.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 4

OpenBioRQ: Unsolved Biomedical Research Questions for Agents

A working citation looks like proof -- but the fact that a link resolves does not mean the cited paper supports the claim. I find that current agentic models rarely fabricate citations (over 99% resolve), yet roughly 15.9% link to the wrong paper. Existing benchmarks miss this failure mode: when a question has a fixed answer key, a model can reproduce the expected source from that key rather than independently verifying that the source supports the claim. I introduce \openbiorq{}, a retrieval-grounded agentic benchmark of 12{,}553 unsolved biomedical research questions across 12 domains that treats open questions as a faithfulness-and-abstention probe. To my knowledge, this is the first biomedical benchmark to combine an agentic setting -- where the model must issue multiple tool calls -- with unsolved questions that have no answer key. Openness is verified against real follow-up evidence rather than a model's parametric knowledge. Difficulty is empirical: I anchor it on questions that three open-weight reference models fail to answer, rather than on subjective hardness labels. On this hardest subset, held-out models from the same lineage as the difficulty anchors solve only ~17%, while three independent frontier agents (Gemini-3-Pro, Opus-4.7, GPT-5.5) span a wide 29-60% range. The benchmark is thus hard, non-saturating (the best agent still leaves ~33-40\% unsolved), and discriminating across capability tiers. Beyond difficulty, I observe agentic collapse on the hardest questions, where agents stop using their tools. For the most collapse-prone model, blocking tool access entirely barely changes its score -- so tools stop paying off exactly where they are needed most. A frozen per-question checklist raises inter-judge agreement from Spearman 0.35 to 0.82.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 19 2

Binarization Flattens the Score Space

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 16

Single-Reference Text-to-Image Manipulation with Dual Contrastive Denoising Score

Large-scale text-to-image generative models have shown remarkable ability to synthesize diverse and high-quality images. However, it is still challenging to directly apply these models for editing real images for two reasons. First, it is difficult for users to come up with a perfect text prompt that accurately describes every visual detail in the input image. Second, while existing models can introduce desirable changes in certain regions, they often dramatically alter the input content and introduce unexpected changes in unwanted regions. To address these challenges, we present Dual Contrastive Denoising Score, a simple yet powerful framework that leverages the rich generative prior of text-to-image diffusion models. Inspired by contrastive learning approaches for unpaired image-to-image translation, we introduce a straightforward dual contrastive loss within the proposed framework. Our approach utilizes the extensive spatial information from the intermediate representations of the self-attention layers in latent diffusion models without depending on auxiliary networks. Our method achieves both flexible content modification and structure preservation between input and output images, as well as zero-shot image-to-image translation. Through extensive experiments, we show that our approach outperforms existing methods in real image editing while maintaining the capability to directly utilize pretrained text-to-image diffusion models without further training.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 18, 2025

Drag Your Gaussian: Effective Drag-Based Editing with Score Distillation for 3D Gaussian Splatting

Recent advancements in 3D scene editing have been propelled by the rapid development of generative models. Existing methods typically utilize generative models to perform text-guided editing on 3D representations, such as 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). However, these methods are often limited to texture modifications and fail when addressing geometric changes, such as editing a character's head to turn around. Moreover, such methods lack accurate control over the spatial position of editing results, as language struggles to precisely describe the extent of edits. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DYG, an effective 3D drag-based editing method for 3D Gaussian Splatting. It enables users to conveniently specify the desired editing region and the desired dragging direction through the input of 3D masks and pairs of control points, thereby enabling precise control over the extent of editing. DYG integrates the strengths of the implicit triplane representation to establish the geometric scaffold of the editing results, effectively overcoming suboptimal editing outcomes caused by the sparsity of 3DGS in the desired editing regions. Additionally, we incorporate a drag-based Latent Diffusion Model into our method through the proposed Drag-SDS loss function, enabling flexible, multi-view consistent, and fine-grained editing. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DYG conducts effective drag-based editing guided by control point prompts, surpassing other baselines in terms of editing effect and quality, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Visit our project page at https://quyans.github.io/Drag-Your-Gaussian.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 30, 2025

Robust 3D-Masked Part-level Editing in 3D Gaussian Splatting with Regularized Score Distillation Sampling

Recent advances in 3D neural representations and instance-level editing models have enabled the efficient creation of high-quality 3D content. However, achieving precise local 3D edits remains challenging, especially for Gaussian Splatting, due to inconsistent multi-view 2D part segmentations and inherently ambiguous nature of Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) loss. To address these limitations, we propose RoMaP, a novel local 3D Gaussian editing framework that enables precise and drastic part-level modifications. First, we introduce a robust 3D mask generation module with our 3D-Geometry Aware Label Prediction (3D-GALP), which uses spherical harmonics (SH) coefficients to model view-dependent label variations and soft-label property, yielding accurate and consistent part segmentations across viewpoints. Second, we propose a regularized SDS loss that combines the standard SDS loss with additional regularizers. In particular, an L1 anchor loss is introduced via our Scheduled Latent Mixing and Part (SLaMP) editing method, which generates high-quality part-edited 2D images and confines modifications only to the target region while preserving contextual coherence. Additional regularizers, such as Gaussian prior removal, further improve flexibility by allowing changes beyond the existing context, and robust 3D masking prevents unintended edits. Experimental results demonstrate that our RoMaP achieves state-of-the-art local 3D editing on both reconstructed and generated Gaussian scenes and objects qualitatively and quantitatively, making it possible for more robust and flexible part-level 3D Gaussian editing. Code is available at https://janeyeon.github.io/romap.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 15, 2025 1

Equal Ranking Quality, Different Decisions: Measuring and Reducing Order Dependence in LLM Scorers

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

How Contaminated Is Your Benchmark? Quantifying Dataset Leakage in Large Language Models with Kernel Divergence

Dataset contamination, where evaluation datasets overlap with pre-training corpora, inflates performance metrics and undermines the reliability of model evaluations. Measuring dataset contamination thus becomes essential to ensure that performance evaluations genuinely reflect a model's ability to generalize to unseen data, rather than relying on memorized examples. To address this problem, we propose Kernel Divergence Score (KDS), a novel method that evaluates dataset contamination by computing the divergence between the kernel similarity matrix of sample embeddings, before and after fine-tuning on the benchmark dataset. Leveraging the insight that fine-tuning affects unseen samples more significantly than seen ones, KDS provides a reliable measure of contamination. Through extensive experiments on controlled contamination scenarios, KDS demonstrates a near-perfect correlation with contamination levels and outperforms existing baselines. Additionally, we perform comprehensive ablation studies to analyze the impact of key design choices, providing deeper insights into the components and effectiveness of KDS. These ablations highlight the importance of leveraging fine-grained kernel-based information and confirm the reliability of the proposed framework across diverse datasets and settings. Code is released in https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/kernel-divergence-score.

  • 4 authors
·
May 19, 2025

Phantom Guardrails: When Self-Improving Agent Harnesses Fix Failures That Never Happened

Self-improving AI agents are designed to learn from their mistakes. We show they can also hallucinate mistakes that never happened. We study this failure mode in automated harness optimization, where an LLM-based proposer edits an agent's scaffold, including prompts, parsers, filters, validators and guardrails, to eliminate observed failures. But this process rarely asks first: was there a real failure to fix? We introduce the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab, a deterministic micro-lab where the correct action is known: do nothing. The lab plants a candidate guardrail for a failure class that provably never occurs, presents only legal episodes, and uses a byte-exact oracle to check every cited violation. The proposer behaves as expected on real violations and abstains on featureless legal input. Yet when the legal input contains a harmless pattern resembling a familiar game rule, it invents a failure: in 15/60 runs, versus 0/60 on featureless input, it enables the nonexistent-rule guardrail and cites a violation the oracle refutes. The effect is structured, not indiscriminate. In single-shot proposals it appears only when three conditions coincide: a rule-shaped pattern, an open-ended rule set and an instruction that presupposes failures. Removing any of these conditions eliminates the fabrication. Because the invented guardrail changes no true outcome and cannot improve an already-perfect suppression score, the phenomenon is neither reward hacking nor over-refusal. It is a phantom guardrail: a fix for a failure that never happened, invisible to suppression-only acceptance. Inside an add-only accept loop it re-enters even without the failure-presupposing instruction, the loop's keep-adding role supplying the demand the instruction supplied in single shot, and once in it stays. We present the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab for measuring fabricated failures in self-improving agent harnesses.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 12

The Winner's Curse in LLM Self-Improvement Loops: Selection Noise, Lock-in, and Acceptance Rules

Self-improving LLM systems propose changes to themselves and keep those that score better on a small evaluation set. We treat this keep-if-better step as selection under measurement noise, model the correlated errors of the candidates in a single decision, and study empirically what happens when the evaluation set is reused. In runs where Qwen models rewrite their own instructions and every candidate is also scored on 600 held-out items, most proposals after the first are harmful, and the model gives the size of the winner's curse of a generation's best candidate. With a prior from a separate pilot, it matches the average overstatement of first-generation commits in native loops, though not setting by setting. In a pre-registered study, the final selection-set score of greedy loops exceeded held-out accuracy by 13 to 20 points with 16 selection items and by 1 to 5 points with 256. Held-out gains grew with the selection set on TREC but not on GSM8K, and the tested acceptance rules did not beat greedy acceptance over whole runs. Gains measured on the selection set also exceeded held-out gains when a current model refined a competent instruction, and in the validation scores of GEPA and MIPROv2. Scoring the starting and the current instruction on 64 items never used for selection removes the average bias of a loop's reported gain, but single estimates remain off by about 6 points. Self-improvement studies should report held-out gains with their uncertainty.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 6

VibeMemBench: Evaluating Memory Systems for Coding Agents on Real Repository Coding Tasks

Coding agents operate on real repository coding tasks, and persistent memory systems promise to reuse experience across tasks. Yet existing evaluations do not show whether those systems improve executable repository work. Repository benchmarks test code changes but do not isolate memory, while memory benchmarks score recall without measuring downstream coding outcomes. We introduce VibeMemBench, a benchmark for evaluating memory systems on 111 coding targets from 90 SWE-rebench V2 repositories and 3,634 history trajectories from the target repositories. The targets follow the SWE benchmark style and cover bug fixes, feature requests, interface changes, and configuration work. An agent edits each target codebase under a declared memory condition. Executable tests decide task resolution. Each target is retained only when injected history experience improves its executable outcome in a reference setting, so every target carries a prior experience whose usefulness is verified by execution in that setting. The frozen verified experience is then transferred to five held-out solvers. Direct injection raises observed task resolution on four of them by 1.1 to 4.5 percentage points while lowering agent steps on all five. Yet when four existing memory systems must construct and retrieve experience from the same history, eleven of twelve solver and system pairings fail to exceed the matched memory-off baseline. VibeMemBench exposes the gap between the useful experience that repository history holds and the experience existing memory systems deliver for repository coding tasks.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 19

Event-Driven Refresh and Recurrence Memory to Reduce Stale Grounding in Referring Video Object Segmentation

Referring Video Object Segmentation (RVOS) aims to produce a pixel-accurate mask sequence for an object specified by natural language. Sa2VA combines a multimodal large language model with SAM2 for grounded segmentation; however, its inference typically grounds the query from a small fixed set of initial keyframes and then relies on propagation. In long or dynamic videos, this can cause stale grounding and persistent false positives when the object composition changes (e.g., distractors enter or the target disappears/re-appears). We propose Event-Driven Refresh + Recurrence Memory (EDRRM), an enhancement that selectively re-invokes Sa2VA only at stable change points. EDRRM triggers refresh boundaries using an EMA-smoothed event score computed from tracking-derived cues (births/deaths and coarse composition/layout changes) with temporal constraints. A recurrence memory further retrieves anchor frames via CLIP similarity to re-condition the model on re-appearance events. Experiments on Ref-DAVIS17, MeViS, and ReVOS show that EDRRM achieves a competitive accuracy-efficiency trade-off relative to fixed-window and FrameDiff-SSIM baselines, maintaining comparable or superior J&F scores at substantially lower average refresh-call budgets and reducing false-positive failures. End-to-end runtime analysis further confirms that the overhead introduced by tracking, CLIP-based recurrence matching, and the identifiability gate remains modest relative to the dominant Sa2VA inference cost, thereby validating the efficiency of the proposed pipeline.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 29

Fair Benchmarking of Emerging One-Step Generative Models Against Multistep Diffusion and Flow Models

State-of-the-art text-to-image models produce high-quality images, but inference remains expensive as generation requires several sequential ODE or denoising steps. Native one-step models aim to reduce this cost by mapping noise to an image in a single step, yet fair comparisons to multi-step systems are difficult because studies use mismatched sampling steps and different classifier-free guidance (CFG) settings, where CFG can shift FID, Inception Score, and CLIP-based alignment in opposing directions. It is also unclear how well one-step models scale to multi-step inference, and there is limited standardized out-of-distribution evaluation for label-ID-conditioned generators beyond ImageNet. To address this, We benchmark eight models spanning one-step flows (MeanFlow, Improved MeanFlow, SoFlow), multi-step baselines (RAE, Scale-RAE), and established systems (SiT, Stable Diffusion 3.5, FLUX.1) under a controlled class-conditional protocol on ImageNet validation, ImageNetV2, and reLAIONet, our new proofread out-of-distribution dataset aligned to ImageNet label IDs. Using FID, Inception Score, CLIP Score, and Pick Score, we show that FID-focused model development and CFG selection can be misleading in few-step regimes, where guidance changes can improve FID while degrading text-image alignment and human preference signals and worsening perceived quality. We further show that leading one-step models benefit from step scaling and become substantially more competitive under multi-step inference, although they still exhibit characteristic local distortions. To capture these tradeoffs, we introduce MinMax Harmonic Mean (MMHM), a composite proxy over all four metrics that stabilizes hyperparameter selection across guidance and step sweeps.

  • 14 authors
·
Mar 14

AgentBetta: Verification-Driven Adaptive Configuration of an AI Nano-Agent through Selective Expansion and Verified Contraction

Large language model agents are typically deployed with predefined configurations, although the required model capability, context, tools, permissions, memory, and computational resources can vary substantially across tasks. This study develops and evaluates AgentBetta, an adaptive AI Nano-Agent framework that represents these factors as an executable configuration and updates them through verification-driven diagnosis, selective expansion, and verification-based counterfactual contraction. The evaluation distinguishes controlled mechanism validation from external agent comparisons. On the AB-ConfigBench benchmark, AgentBetta achieved 91.38% verified success while reducing median context allocation from 64,000 to 8,000 context characters and median tool exposure from five tools to zero compared with the fully provisioned configuration. The configuration-deficiency diagnosis achieved a macro-F1 score of 0.819 with precision of 1.000 across the evaluated dimensions, and selective expansion avoided unnecessary changes to unrelated configuration dimensions. Post-success contraction preserved verification outcomes in 56.41% of evaluated one-dimension contraction probes, indicating that some successful configurations contained removable capability under the tested conditions. External evaluations indicate that adaptive configuration can improve the balance between verified task completion and capability exposure; however, the results vary across benchmarks and agent families. In particular, the cross-family replication did not reproduce the primary-backbone accuracy ordering, and specialized systems remained advantageous for certain task domains. These results support interpreting AgentBetta as a configuration-adaptation mechanism that regulates capability allocation and inference expenditure rather than as a universal replacement for specialized agent architectures.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 19

Influence Scores at Scale for Efficient Language Data Sampling

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 27, 2023

FED-Bench: A Cross-Granular Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Facial Expression Editing

Facial expression image editing requires fine-grained control to strictly preserve human identity and background while precisely manipulating expression. However, existing editing benchmarks primarily focus on general scenarios, lacking high-quality facial images and corresponding editing instructions. Furthermore, current evaluation metrics exhibit systemic biases in this task, often favoring lazy editing or overfit editing. To bridge these gaps, we propose FED-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark featuring rigorous testing and an accurate evaluation suite. First, we carefully construct a benchmark of 747 triplets through a cascaded and scalable pipeline, each comprising an original image, an editing instruction, and a ground-truth image for precise evaluation. Second, we introduce FED-Score, a cross-granularity evaluation protocol that disentangles assessment into three dimensions: Alignment for verifying instruction following, Fidelity for testing image quality and identity preservation, and Relative Expression Gain for quantifying the magnitude of expression changes, effectively mitigating the aforementioned evaluation biases. Third, we benchmark 18 image editing models, revealing that current approaches struggle to simultaneously achieve high fidelity and accurate expression manipulation, with fine-grained instruction following identified as the primary bottleneck. Finally, leveraging the scalable characteristic of introduced benchmark engine, we provide a 20k+ in-the-wild facial training set and demonstrate its effectiveness by fine-tuning a baseline model that achieves significant performance gains. Our benchmark and related code will be made publicly open soon.

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 30

VDiff-Bench: A Challenging Benchmark for Fine-Grained Image Difference Identification

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) perform strongly on general visual understanding tasks such as visual question answering, yet they often struggle with a basic comparative skill: identifying what has changed between two similar images. We introduce VDiff-Bench, a challenging multiple-choice benchmark for fine-grained Image Difference Identification. VDiff-Bench contains 1,756 four-way questions over image pairs and covers 10 change categories: position, motion, regional image color, overall image color, appearance/disappearance, noise/resolution, texture, substitution/size, OCR/text, and illumination. Each question corresponds to two image inputs with 4 choices: the true difference, two hard negative descriptions, and a "no difference" distractor. To make the task challenging, we specifically curate ground-truth-conditioned negatives that require models to distinguish the actual change from nearby semantic alternatives. Experiments with 11 state-of-the-art open- and closed-source MLLMs show that fine-grained visual comparison remains brittle: models exhibit uneven performance across sources and change categories, with persistent failures on subtle low-level changes like noises and textures. For instance, three 7-8B-scale open-source MLLMs score 52.5-70.6% on semantic changes but only 8.7-33.3% on low-level changes like noise and texture, falsely assuming no changes between two image inputs. Surprisingly, despite strong performance of other closed-source commercial models, Grok 4.3 demonstrate remarkable performance drop on identifying noise and texture differences between images, falling significantly behind large open-source models like Kimi K2.5 and K3. Overall, VDiff-Bench provides a targeted diagnostic for evaluating comparative visual understanding in MLLMs, exposing failures that are not captured by standard single-image vision-language tasks.

AES Systems Are Both Overstable And Oversensitive: Explaining Why And Proposing Defenses

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 23, 2021

Credit Risk Meets Large Language Models: Building a Risk Indicator from Loan Descriptions in P2P Lending

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending connects borrowers and lenders through online platforms but suffers from significant information asymmetry, as lenders often lack sufficient data to assess borrowers' creditworthiness. This paper addresses this challenge by leveraging BERT, a Large Language Model (LLM) known for its ability to capture contextual nuances in text, to generate a risk score based on borrowers' loan descriptions using a dataset from the Lending Club platform. We fine-tune BERT to distinguish between defaulted and non-defaulted loans using the loan descriptions provided by the borrowers. The resulting BERT-generated risk score is then integrated as an additional feature into an XGBoost classifier used at the loan granting stage, where decision-makers have limited information available to guide their decisions. This integration enhances predictive performance, with improvements in balanced accuracy and AUC, highlighting the value of textual features in complementing traditional inputs. Moreover, we find that the incorporation of the BERT score alters how classification models utilize traditional input variables, with these changes varying by loan purpose. These findings suggest that BERT discerns meaningful patterns in loan descriptions, encompassing borrower-specific features, specific purposes, and linguistic characteristics. However, the inherent opacity of LLMs and their potential biases underscore the need for transparent frameworks to ensure regulatory compliance and foster trust. Overall, this study demonstrates how LLM-derived insights interact with traditional features in credit risk modeling, opening new avenues to enhance the explainability and fairness of these models.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 29, 2024

CleanVul: Automatic Function-Level Vulnerability Detection in Code Commits Using LLM Heuristics

Accurate identification of software vulnerabilities is crucial for system integrity. Vulnerability datasets, often derived from the National Vulnerability Database (NVD) or directly from GitHub, are essential for training machine learning models to detect these security flaws. However, these datasets frequently suffer from significant noise, typically 40% to 75%, due primarily to the automatic and indiscriminate labeling of all changes in vulnerability-fixing commits (VFCs) as vulnerability-related. This misclassification occurs because not all changes in a commit aimed at fixing vulnerabilities pertain to security threats; many are routine updates like bug fixes or test improvements. This paper introduces the first methodology that uses the Large Language Model (LLM) with a heuristic enhancement to automatically identify vulnerability-fixing changes from VFCs, achieving an F1-score of 0.82. VulSifter was applied to a large-scale study, where we conducted a crawl of 127,063 repositories on GitHub, resulting in the acquisition of 5,352,105 commits. VulSifter involves utilizing an LLM to comprehend code semantics and contextual information, while applying heuristics to filter out unrelated changes. We then developed CleanVul, a high-quality dataset comprising 8,198 functions using our LLM heuristic enhancement approach, demonstrating Correctness (90.6%) comparable to established datasets such as SVEN and PrimeVul. To evaluate the CleanVul dataset, we conducted experiments focusing on fine-tuning various LLMs on CleanVul and other high-quality datasets. Evaluation results reveal that LLMs fine-tuned on CleanVul not only exhibit enhanced accuracy but also superior generalization capabilities compared to those trained on uncleaned datasets. Specifically, models trained on CleanVul and tested on PrimeVul achieve accuracy higher than those trained and tested exclusively on PrimeVul.

  • 16 authors
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Nov 26, 2024

EvoStreaming: Your Offline Video Model Is a Natively Streaming Assistant

Streaming video understanding demands more than watching longer videos: assistants must decide when to speak in real time, balancing responsiveness against verbosity. Yet most video-language models (VideoLLMs) are trained for offline inference, and existing streaming benchmarks externalize this timing decision to the evaluator. We address this gap with RealStreamEval, a frame-level multi-turn evaluation protocol that exposes models to sequential observations and penalizes unnecessary responses. Under this protocol, we observed that strong offline VideoLLMs retain useful visual understanding but lack an interaction policy for deciding when to respond. Motivated by this observation, we propose EvoStreaming, a self-evolved streaming adaptation framework in which the base model itself acts as data generator, relevance annotator, and roll-out policy to synthesize streaming trajectories without external supervision. With only 1{,}000 self-generated samples (139times less than the leading streaming instruction-tuning approach) and no architectural changes, EvoStreaming consistently improves the overall RealStreamEval score by up to 10.8 points across five open VideoLLM backbones (Qwen2/2.5/3-VL, InternVL-3.5, MiniCPM-V4.5) while largely preserving offline video performance. These results suggest that data-efficient interaction tuning is a practical path for adapting existing VideoLLMs to streaming assistants.

  • 8 authors
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May 10

Finding the Right Fit: Model-Harness Interactions across Agent Tasks

Choosing an agent system means choosing both a language model and the harness through which it acts. We ask whether a strong model, harness, or pairing stays strong when the setting changes. We evaluate 66 configurations: four configurable harnesses (OpenHands, DeepSeek Harness, PI, and openJiuwen) paired with five models on TUA-Bench, ALE-CLI, and Terminal-Bench 4, plus the native Codex-GPT and Claude Code-Claude pairings. Model rankings reverse across harnesses. On Terminal-Bench 4, Claude leads GPT by 7.94 points in OpenHands but trails it by 30.16 points in PI. For four of the five models, the best harness changes from one benchmark to another, yet some pairings hold: openJiuwen gives Kimi its highest score on all three benchmarks, by 5.61 to 11.11 points. A model's own vendor harness is not reliably its best, and higher cost does not reliably buy a higher score. On Terminal-Bench 4, GPT scores higher under PI than under DSH at less than a quarter of the cost per task. Matched trajectories suggest why fit varies. Models start almost all repairs themselves, so much depends on whether the harness hands failures back in a form the model can use. GPT does best with PI's lean scaffold, while Kimi, which often issues malformed tool calls, does best in openJiuwen. We argue that the model, the harness, and the task should be evaluated together, and we release the harness adapters, evaluation code, and all 6,204 scored trajectories at https://github.com/liyix/finding-the-right-fit and https://huggingface.co/datasets/yixuanli97/finding-the-right-fit.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 30

WorldCache: Accelerating World Models for Free via Heterogeneous Token Caching

Diffusion-based world models have shown strong potential for unified world simulation, but the iterative denoising remains too costly for interactive use and long-horizon rollouts. While feature caching can accelerate inference without training, we find that policies designed for single-modal diffusion transfer poorly to world models due to two world-model-specific obstacles: token heterogeneity from multi-modal coupling and spatial variation, and non-uniform temporal dynamics where a small set of hard tokens drives error growth, making uniform skipping either unstable or overly conservative. We propose WorldCache, a caching framework tailored to diffusion world models. We introduce Curvature-guided Heterogeneous Token Prediction, which uses a physics-grounded curvature score to estimate token predictability and applies a Hermite-guided damped predictor for chaotic tokens with abrupt direction changes. We also design Chaotic-prioritized Adaptive Skipping, which accumulates a curvature-normalized, dimensionless drift signal and recomputes only when bottleneck tokens begin to drift. Experiments on diffusion world models show that WorldCache delivers up to 3.7times end-to-end speedups while maintaining 98\% rollout quality, demonstrating the vast advantages and practicality of WorldCache in resource-constrained scenarios. Our code is released in https://github.com/FofGofx/WorldCache.

  • 13 authors
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Mar 6 3

Deformation-Recovery Diffusion Model (DRDM): Instance Deformation for Image Manipulation and Synthesis

In medical imaging, the diffusion models have shown great potential in synthetic image generation tasks. However, these models often struggle with the interpretable connections between the generated and existing images and could create illusions. To address these challenges, our research proposes a novel diffusion-based generative model based on deformation diffusion and recovery. This model, named Deformation-Recovery Diffusion Model (DRDM), diverges from traditional score/intensity and latent feature-based approaches, emphasizing morphological changes through deformation fields rather than direct image synthesis. This is achieved by introducing a topological-preserving deformation field generation method, which randomly samples and integrates a set of multi-scale Deformation Vector Fields (DVF). DRDM is trained to learn to recover unreasonable deformation components, thereby restoring each randomly deformed image to a realistic distribution. These innovations facilitate the generation of diverse and anatomically plausible deformations, enhancing data augmentation and synthesis for further analysis in downstream tasks, such as few-shot learning and image registration. Experimental results in cardiac MRI and pulmonary CT show DRDM is capable of creating diverse, large (over 10\% image size deformation scale), and high-quality (negative rate of the Jacobian matrix's determinant is lower than 1\%) deformation fields. The further experimental results in downstream tasks, 2D image segmentation and 3D image registration, indicate significant improvements resulting from DRDM, showcasing the potential of our model to advance image manipulation and synthesis in medical imaging and beyond. Project page: https://jianqingzheng.github.io/def_diff_rec/

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 9, 2024

SWE-RL: Advancing LLM Reasoning via Reinforcement Learning on Open Software Evolution

The recent DeepSeek-R1 release has demonstrated the immense potential of reinforcement learning (RL) in enhancing the general reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While DeepSeek-R1 and other follow-up work primarily focus on applying RL to competitive coding and math problems, this paper introduces SWE-RL, the first approach to scale RL-based LLM reasoning for real-world software engineering. Leveraging a lightweight rule-based reward (e.g., the similarity score between ground-truth and LLM-generated solutions), SWE-RL enables LLMs to autonomously recover a developer's reasoning processes and solutions by learning from extensive open-source software evolution data -- the record of a software's entire lifecycle, including its code snapshots, code changes, and events such as issues and pull requests. Trained on top of Llama 3, our resulting reasoning model, Llama3-SWE-RL-70B, achieves a 41.0% solve rate on SWE-bench Verified -- a human-verified collection of real-world GitHub issues. To our knowledge, this is the best performance reported for medium-sized (<100B) LLMs to date, even comparable to leading proprietary LLMs like GPT-4o. Surprisingly, despite performing RL solely on software evolution data, Llama3-SWE-RL has even emerged with generalized reasoning skills. For example, it shows improved results on five out-of-domain tasks, namely, function coding, library use, code reasoning, mathematics, and general language understanding, whereas a supervised-finetuning baseline even leads to performance degradation on average. Overall, SWE-RL opens up a new direction to improve the reasoning capabilities of LLMs through reinforcement learning on massive software engineering data.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 25, 2025 5

FAPO: Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization of Multi-Step LLM Pipelines

Multi-step LLM pipelines fail through interactions among retrieval, reasoning, and formatting steps, so prompt-only optimization can miss bottlenecks in the chain. We present FAPO (Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization), a framework that lets Claude Code optimize an LLM pipeline inside a standardized codebase. FAPO evaluates a pipeline, inspects intermediate steps, diagnoses failures, proposes scoped changes, and validates variants repeatedly to optimize against a score function. It first tries prompt edits and, only when prompt optimization appears insufficient, changes chain structure within the permitted scope when attribution identifies a structural bottleneck. Across six benchmarks and three task models, FAPO beats the baseline GEPA in 15 of 18 model-benchmark comparisons. In 11 model-benchmark comparisons, FAPO wins with non-overlapping mean pm trial-standard-deviation ranges, and the mean FAPO-GEPA gain is +14.1 pp. In the six HoVer and IFBench comparisons where prompt-first search escalated to structural changes, FAPO wins all six with a mean gain of +33.8 pp. FAPO also improves performance on security tasks: on CTIBench-RCM, a security CVE-to-CWE task, prompt-only FAPO lifts test accuracy by +4.0 pp on GPT-5, +7.1 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Instruct, and +2.0 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Reasoning. These results position FAPO as a state-of-the-art pipeline optimization technique for both general-purpose and security-focused tasks.

WebFovea: When the Model Is Right but the Click Is Wrong -- Reliable Round Trips for Vision-Based Web Agents on Live Websites

We present WebFovea, a vision-based web agent that placed 2nd in the WebRetriever Challenge 2026 with a final score of 57.0 out of 100. The challenge evaluates agents end to end on Protocol III of the WebRetriever benchmark (arXiv:2607.06118): starting from an entry URL on a live website, the agent must operate the site's own interface and return a verifiable answer. A capable multimodal large language model (LLM) is necessary for this, but not sufficient. The model's decisions reach the browser through the harness, the code between the model and the page. At every step, four things must go right: the model's reply must be parsed into the intended action, the action must take effect on the page, the result must be reported back accurately, and the model must be shown the information it needs. On real websites, many of the failures we observed occurred at one of these four stages rather than in the model's reasoning. A coordinate-space mismatch placed every click at 3/4 of its intended coordinates; actions on native dropdowns, inside iframes, and in text boxes failed silently; and self-generated chat-template tokens contaminated 4.9% of task episodes. WebFovea hardens each stage and surrounds the loop with guardrails that keep the agent within the rules and its budget. The four-stage view does not depend on the model, although some individual fixes do. Because we used the same model in all four submissions, the rise of our official hidden-set score from 31.0 to 57.0 reflects changes to the harness, up to run-to-run variance on live sites. We describe the design, the evidence for each component (including negative results), a failure analysis, the limitations, and a roadmap that includes routing different steps to different models. Code is available at https://github.com/jianganghan/WebFovea.

  • 1 authors
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Oct 6 1

DynVideo-E: Harnessing Dynamic NeRF for Large-Scale Motion- and View-Change Human-Centric Video Editing

Despite remarkable research advances in diffusion-based video editing, existing methods are limited to short-length videos due to the contradiction between long-range consistency and frame-wise editing. Recent approaches attempt to tackle this challenge by introducing video-2D representations to degrade video editing to image editing. However, they encounter significant difficulties in handling large-scale motion- and view-change videos especially for human-centric videos. This motivates us to introduce the dynamic Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) as the human-centric video representation to ease the video editing problem to a 3D space editing task. As such, editing can be performed in the 3D spaces and propagated to the entire video via the deformation field. To provide finer and direct controllable editing, we propose the image-based 3D space editing pipeline with a set of effective designs. These include multi-view multi-pose Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) from both 2D personalized diffusion priors and 3D diffusion priors, reconstruction losses on the reference image, text-guided local parts super-resolution, and style transfer for 3D background space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method, dubbed as DynVideo-E, significantly outperforms SOTA approaches on two challenging datasets by a large margin of 50% ~ 95% in terms of human preference. Compelling video comparisons are provided in the project page https://showlab.github.io/DynVideo-E/. Our code and data will be released to the community.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 16, 2023

PanCanBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models in Pancreatic Oncology

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved expert-level performance on standardized examinations, yet multiple-choice accuracy poorly reflects real-world clinical utility and safety. As patients and clinicians increasingly use LLMs for guidance on complex conditions such as pancreatic cancer, evaluation must extend beyond general medical knowledge. Existing frameworks, such as HealthBench, rely on simulated queries and lack disease-specific depth. Moreover, high rubric-based scores do not ensure factual correctness, underscoring the need to assess hallucinations. We developed a human-in-the-loop pipeline to create expert rubrics for de-identified patient questions from the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN). The resulting benchmark, PanCanBench, includes 3,130 question-specific criteria across 282 authentic patient questions. We evaluated 22 proprietary and open-source LLMs using an LLM-as-a-judge framework, measuring clinical completeness, factual accuracy, and web-search integration. Models showed substantial variation in rubric-based completeness, with scores ranging from 46.5% to 82.3%. Factual errors were common, with hallucination rates (the percentages of responses containing at least one factual error) ranging from 6.0% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and GPT-4o to 53.8% for Llama-3.1-8B. Importantly, newer reasoning-optimized models did not consistently improve factuality: although o3 achieved the highest rubric score, it produced inaccuracies more frequently than other GPT-family models. Web-search integration did not inherently guarantee better responses. The average score changed from 66.8% to 63.9% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and from 73.8% to 72.8% for GPT-5 when web search was enabled. Synthetic AI-generated rubrics inflated absolute scores by 17.9 points on average while generally maintaining similar relative ranking.

  • 16 authors
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Mar 1

Label-Free Detection of Governance Evidence Degradation in Risk Decision Systems

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 19

Trust the Batch, On- or Off-Policy: Adaptive Policy Optimization for RL Post-Training

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.

  • 4 authors
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May 11

Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelines

Continuous evaluation of LLM products relies on a strong LLM judge treated as ground truth: a cheap monitor scores every interaction and a team is paged when the score drifts down. But the judge is itself a model behind an API, and a silent version bump or scoring-prompt update changes how it scores -- so every drift alarm is ambiguous between a worse product and a changed judge. We resolve the ambiguity with a fixed, human-labeled anchor set that the current judge re-scores at a steady interleave, a second betting e-process on the judge-versus-human gap, and a guard-window rule returning a verdict in {none, system, judge}. We prove anytime-validity, one-way identification (only the judge can move the anchors), an attribution race whose design law is that the anchors must out-run the main process they guard, and process orthogonality. On two real judge changes, a silent version bump is detected as judge drift in 60/60 runs with zero judge-to-system misattribution, and a contaminating strict-prompt change is correctly attributed on 110 of 120 runs at guard width 300 -- while the industry-default rolling z-test false-alarms on 75% of drift-free streams. Every experiment replicates on a second domain (TL;DR summarization) with nothing re-tuned, and where the domains differ the differences are the ones the race predicts: the strict-prompt change shifts scores harder there, so the anchors fire faster and attribution becomes perfect (240/240). The monitor runs at approximately 0.64 of the cost of strong-judging every item, or 0.21 in a cheaper-but-deafer regime.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 12

Neural Network-Based Score Estimation in Diffusion Models: Optimization and Generalization

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 28, 2024

How Can Rhetoric Reward-Hack AI Reviewers? Dissecting Rhetorical Sensitivity in AI-Based Peer Review

As large language models increasingly participate in scientific evaluation, we investigate a potential form of reward hacking: how rhetorical choices shape AI-review judgments when reported scientific content is preserved and how these effects vary across evaluation conditions. We construct a controlled corpus of 4,200 full-paper manuscripts derived from 120 anonymized ICLR 2026 submissions. Two LLM rewriters transform six rhetorical dimensions in opposing directions, and five LLM reviewers evaluate the resulting manuscripts under standard and strict protocols. We also test joint, recursive, and reviewer-guided rewriting. Our results show that rhetorical sensitivity is structured rather than uniform. Evidence framing and novelty stance produce the largest positive-negative contrasts in overall assessment, with scope framing forming a weaker second tier; the remaining dimensions have smaller or less stable effects. This hierarchy persists across human-assessed quality levels, but score movement depends strongly on the AI reviewer's original score: lower scores tend to rise, higher scores tend to fall, and directional contrasts are clearest in the middle ranges. More elaborate workflows do not reliably yield larger gains. Joint rewriting is strongly rewriter-dependent, reviewer guidance does not consistently outperform an unguided second pass, and repeated rewriting yields diminishing, configuration-dependent returns. Across conditions, the rewriter primarily determines the separation between opposing variants, whereas the reviewer determines the magnitude and sign of their score effects. Strict review lowers mean OA by 1.36 points without consistently changing rhetorical sensitivity. These findings identify when rhetorical presentation influences AI scientific review and motivate evaluation systems robust to content-preserving variation in scientific writing.

Do Small Models Use the Law You Give Them? Measuring Context Use on a Bilingual Bangladesh Legal Benchmark

Fine-tuning can improve legal question-answering accuracy without improving how models use law supplied in context. We study this distinction in bilingual Bangladeshi legal QA, where observed errors can arise from answer scoring, retrieval, or failure to use relevant law. We construct a hierarchy-preserving statutory corpus, 2,165 reviewed bilingual fine-tuning examples, and a 150-item supplied-law control. We evaluate six instruction-tuned models: Llama-3.2-1B, Llama-3.2-3B, Qwen3.5-0.8B, Qwen3.5-2B, Qwen3.5-4B, and Gemma-4-E2B, with three LoRA seeds per model. To separate effects, we combine constrained option-letter scoring, cyclic option rotation, and controlled removal of the governing provision. On 398 Bar Council outputs, an exact-line parser attributes an accuracy gain of 50.0\% to the Qwen3.5-2B seed-42 adapter, whereas option scoring yields only 3.0%. For Gemma-4-E2B, the two scoring methods favor different systems. When the governing provision is guaranteed to be present, five of six reference models improve by 14.7%-19.3% under the four-order criterion. Removing that provision reduces accuracy by 8.0%-15.3% for models and by 13.8%-14.9% points for their adapters. However, difference-in differences estimates show no increase in reliance on the governing provision after fine-tuning. Results show that legal adaptation claims require separating scorer, retriever, and model effects. Our Code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/bangladesh-legal-qa-11E3

  • 6 authors
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Aug 30

Community corrections have divergent downstream effects across corrected accounts

Community-based fact-checking can reduce the spread of annotated misleading posts, but whether it produces lasting behavioral change among corrected authors remains unclear. Here, we conduct a large-scale quasi-experimental study of the Community Notes system on X (formerly Twitter), tracking four weeks of activity before and after note display for 19,854 accounts and 57,935 corrections (noted posts and matched controls), covering 11,909,591 original posts. Difference-in-Differences estimates show that note display is followed by an average 2.9% increase in corrected accounts' original-post activity. This aggregate conceals two divergent trajectories. Accounts corrected only once reduce their activity by 2.4% and subsequently publish less toxic and less misleading content. Repeatedly corrected accounts, which constitute 28.6% of corrected accounts but produce 73.4% of fact-checked posts, instead increase their activity by 4.4% after their first correction and show no detectable response to later ones. They exhibit no comparable content improvement, and instead publish more highly misleading posts, cite lower-quality domains, and post more political content. Community notes can thus constrain individual misleading posts without durably improving the behavior of the accounts most responsible for them, indicating that correcting content and changing its producers are distinct objectives for platform design.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 26

Option-Aware Retrieval and Task-Specific VLM Adaptation for Medical VQA

We describe our submission to the MedReason 2026 challenge, covering multiple-choice (MCQ) and open-ended (OE) medical visual question answering (VQA) under fully offline, containerized inference. Our first finding is that MCQ retrieval must compare answer semantics rather than answer labels: labels are independently assigned per question, so copying a retrieved neighbor's label transfers no useful information, whereas scoring each current option's text against correct-answer text from similar training cases raises retrieval-only accuracy from 20.0\% to 57.5\% on a 200-case retrieval-excluded development holdout. Our second finding attributes the submitted system's accuracy: holding the task-specific MCQ Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) adapter fixed and varying the number \(k\) of in-prompt retrieved examples changes accuracy by at most one case --- 187/200 (93.5\%) at both \(k=0\) and the adapter's training-time \(k=1\), 188/200 (94.0\%) at the packaged runtime's default \(k=3\) --- and the submitted confidence-gated override adds no net accuracy on top of \(k=3\), selecting the VLM in 198/200 cases. With the final MCQ adapter fixed, retrieval changes accuracy by at most one case, and gating provides no net gain. On 20 OE cases, token-F1 and RaTEScore~zhao2024ratescore decrease as \(k\) grows, but paired sign tests on token-F1 differences are nonsignificant (\(p \ge 0.29\)); a single-annotator comparison found 6/20 wrong-anchor errors for the final configuration and 14/20 for an earlier configuration that jointly differed in routing, adapter, and prompting. The system reaches 94.0\% MCQ accuracy on the development holdout and 93.20\% on the organizer's official pre-evaluation, versus 29.43\% for the off-the-shelf reference baseline, while both of the organizer's open-ended scores are lower than that baseline's (ground-truth agreement 1.245 versus 1.588, visual accuracy 1.995 versus 2.696, each out of 4).

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 13

Pervasive Annotation Errors Break Text-to-SQL Benchmarks and Leaderboards

Researchers have proposed numerous text-to-SQL techniques to streamline data analytics and accelerate the development of data-driven applications. To compare these techniques and select the best one for deployment, the community depends on public benchmarks and their leaderboards. Since these benchmarks heavily rely on human annotations during question construction and answer evaluation, the validity of the annotations is crucial. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study that (i) benchmarks annotation error rates for two widely used text-to-SQL benchmarks, BIRD and Spider 2.0-Snow, and (ii) corrects a subset of the BIRD development (Dev) set to measure the impact of annotation errors on text-to-SQL agent performance and leaderboard rankings. Through expert analysis, we show that BIRD Mini-Dev and Spider 2.0-Snow have error rates of 52.8% and 62.8%, respectively. We re-evaluate all 16 open-source agents from the BIRD leaderboard on both the original and the corrected BIRD Dev subsets. We show that performance changes range from -7% to 31% (in relative terms) and rank changes range from -9 to +9 positions. We further assess whether these impacts generalize to the full BIRD Dev set. We find that the rankings of agents on the uncorrected subset correlate strongly with those on the full Dev set (Spearman's r_s=0.85, p=3.26e-5), whereas they correlate weakly with those on the corrected subset (Spearman's r_s=0.32, p=0.23). These findings show that annotation errors can significantly distort reported performance and rankings, potentially misguiding research directions or deployment choices. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/uiuc-kang-lab/text_to_sql_benchmarks.

  • 4 authors
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Jan 13

Beyond the Final Prompt: Measuring the Effect of Within-Conversation Context on AI Answers

An isolated final user message is often treated as the query in evaluations of AI systems. In a conversation, however, the actionable request may be distributed across preceding turns. We directly test whether that omitted within-conversation context changes answers. For each of 180 English multi-turn conversations sampled from a governed commercial corpus and the public PRISM dataset, we hold the final user message and requested answer model constant while generating three answers: one from the full role-labelled conversation, one from the final message alone, and one from the final message plus a prefix-only reconstruction capped at 160 words. A separately requested judge model evaluates answers under randomized labels. The prespecified primary endpoint is a material difference that could change what the user does, rather than a difference in style or detail. After inverse-probability weighting to the eligible cohorts, the full-conversation and isolated-final answers differ materially in 44.7% of cases (95% bootstrap CI 33.8% to 56.1%). Full-conversation answers score 0.49 points higher on a 0 to 4 request-satisfaction scale (0.32 to 0.67). Adding the compressed prefix reduces the material-difference rate to 30.8% (20.2% to 42.1%), a 13.9-point reduction (4.9% to 24.1%), and reduces the mean satisfaction gap to 0.01 points (-0.12 to 0.13). Yet compression is not equivalent to the complete dialogue context: almost one third of answers remain materially different. An order-swapped repeat on 48 cases yields 91.7% agreement and kappa = 0.83 for the primary decision. The study concerns preceding turns in the same conversation and does not test persistent memory across separate conversations.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 2

WorkflowPerturb: Calibrated Stress Tests for Evaluating Multi-Agent Workflow Metrics

Multi-agent LLM systems that generate structured workflows from natural-language requests are now deployed in production across cloud automation, DevOps, and enterprise process orchestration. Operating such systems exposes a recurring change-management problem. Routine updates, such as re-running the same input, swapping the underlying LLM, or refactoring an agent's prompt or orchestration code, frequently produce workflows that differ substantially from previously validated references. Engineers are then left without a principled way to decide whether a change is safe to ship. Automatic workflow evaluation is the natural tool for answering this question. In practice, however, metric scores are poorly calibrated, and a numeric change rarely communicates the severity of the underlying degradation. We introduce WorkflowPerturb, a controlled benchmark for studying workflow evaluation metrics by applying realistic, graded perturbations to golden workflows. WorkflowPerturb contains 4,973 golden workflows and 44,757 perturbed variants across three perturbation types (Missing Steps, Compressed Steps, and Description Changes), each applied at severity levels of 10%, 30%, and 50%. We benchmark multiple metric families and analyze their sensitivity and calibration using expected score trajectories and residuals. Our results characterize systematic differences across metric families and support severity-aware interpretation of workflow evaluation scores in change-management settings. Our dataset will be released upon acceptance.

  • 5 authors
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Jun 13

Score Augmentation for Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling. However, this study confirms the existence of overfitting in diffusion model training, particularly in data-limited regimes. To address this challenge, we propose Score Augmentation (ScoreAug), a novel data augmentation framework specifically designed for diffusion models. Unlike conventional augmentation approaches that operate on clean data, ScoreAug applies transformations to noisy data, aligning with the inherent denoising mechanism of diffusion. Crucially, ScoreAug further requires the denoiser to predict the augmentation of the original target. This design establishes an equivariant learning objective, enabling the denoiser to learn scores across varied denoising spaces, thereby realizing what we term score augmentation. We also theoretically analyze the relationship between scores in different spaces under general transformations. In experiments, we extensively validate ScoreAug on multiple benchmarks including CIFAR-10, FFHQ, AFHQv2, and ImageNet, with results demonstrating significant performance improvements over baselines. Notably, ScoreAug effectively mitigates overfitting across diverse scenarios, such as varying data scales and model capacities, while exhibiting stable convergence properties. Another advantage of ScoreAug over standard data augmentation lies in its ability to circumvent data leakage issues under certain conditions. Furthermore, we show that ScoreAug can be synergistically combined with traditional data augmentation techniques to achieve additional performance gains.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 11, 2025

Compression Is Not Evaluation-Neutral: Fixed RAG Compression Can Distort Reader Comparisons

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) evaluations often compare readers after a compressor has changed their evidence. This mixes two questions: which complete pipeline works best, and how much of a reader upgrade survives compression. We show that fixed compression can raise average pipeline accuracy while hiding most of a reader upgrade. We hold questions, retrieved candidates, prompts, scoring, and compressed text fixed while comparing 8-20 readers across five question-answering benchmarks and five compression families. HotpotQA and MuSiQue are the main benchmarks, analyzed under a plan fixed in advance. In the 20-reader HotpotQA panel, the lowest- and highest-scoring readers under raw evidence are 31.8 percentage points (pp) apart before compression but only 7.8pp apart on the same stored output from a HotpotQA-trained RECOMP compressor. On both main benchmarks, lower raw-scoring readers gain more under exact match and token-overlap F1. Reader pairs also change order more often under compressed evidence than in raw replays across question halves. Row-level accounting explains how higher average accuracy and smaller upgrades coexist: compression rescues some wrong answers and damages some correct answers, with a different balance for each reader. We release ragscale to audit declared reader upgrades under raw and fixed compressed evidence. Reader evaluations should run this audit before attributing a compressed-only result to the reader.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 1

Cost-effectiveness analysis for therapy sequence in advanced cancer: A microsimulation approach with application to metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

  • 5 authors
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Oct 10, 2022

Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Rubric Dropout: A Simple Way to Mitigate Reward Hacking in Rubric-as-Reward RL

Reinforcement learning against rubrics, lists of criteria graded by an LLM judge, has become a standard way to post-train language models on tasks with no deterministic answer. The rubric, however, is a fixed proxy for quality, never a complete description of it, and a policy trained against it long enough will learn to exploit the difference. We measure this directly. Training Qwen3-8B with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on medical and science rubrics and grading out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks with both the training judge and a stronger gold judge, we find that the two scores diverge during training. The training judge's score keeps climbing while the gold judge's score peaks and then falls, by 3 points on HealthBench-Hard and by 22 points on ResearchQA. A judge with a fixed bias would shift the gold curve by a constant, not send it down while the training score rises, so the divergence is reward hacking, not judge noise. We propose Rubric Dropout, a one-line fix borrowed from neuron dropout. At every step, we randomly drop a subset of the rubric's criteria before computing the reward, so the policy never optimizes the same rubric twice. The dropped subset is shared across each rollout group, so GRPO's group-relative advantages stay comparable, and evaluation always uses the full rubric. Comparing no dropout against dropout at 30% and 50% on both benchmark pairs, dropout raises the OOD gold score at every matched checkpoint (+1 to +2 points on HealthBench-Hard, +6 to +7 points on ResearchQA), lowers the two hacking measures we track, and costs nothing in domain. Sweeping the dropout fraction shows a broad 30-50% sweet spot, while the natural alternative, reweighting criteria by how useful they are to training, performs worse than no intervention at all in our setting.

  • 9 authors
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Aug 11

mimeo: Compiling Public Expert Corpora into Agent Skills and Testing What Transfers

Giving an agent a file about a named expert can supply hard-to-find material, produce a recognizable persona, or change what the agent decides. These are different claims. We test each one. mimeo is an open-source tool that finds a person's public work, checks each extracted quotation against the cached source text, and writes a file an agent can load. Eight logged builds averaged 38 model calls; the check rejects 13.2% of extracted quotations. We tested four expert files with one coding-agent harness. Knowledge access was clearest: mimeo answered all 20 obscure, quotation-heavy questions; no closed-book condition answered more than 10. Keyword search (BM25) over the same pages answered 15-17, a gap this sample cannot resolve. Grounding showed one clear benefit: personas written from model memory misstated a documented position on 1-4 of 20 answers under every grader; the plain agent and mimeo never did. Every persona was easy to spot on short open prompts, and adding task material lowered identification by 18-23 points. mimeo was no more identifiable than a from-memory profile. Judgment transfer remained unresolved because both tests hit their ceiling: every condition found 94-97% of the problems planted in engineering tasks and scored 94-100% on 16 new application scenarios. An AI-judged "sounds like the expert" score changed with the judge: two of four preferred answers based on a model's stereotype, while two found no difference on the same text. That is a caution against relying on a single AI judge. The evidence supports mimeo as a compact, inspectable reference on a person, not as a demonstrated transfer of their judgment. Toolkit and expert profiles: https://github.com/K-Dense-AI/mimeo

  • 1 authors
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Aug 30

Groupwise Agentic Grading and Advantage Redistribution for Code Agent RL

Reinforcement learning (RL) for code agents often uses executable tests to provide binary rewards. With these rewards, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) assigns identical advantages to test-passing trajectories within each rollout group, overlooking differences in implementation quality and adherence to task requirements. This leaves the policy without a learning signal that favors clean, targeted implementations over those containing unnecessary or out-of-scope changes. We introduce GAGAR, a framework for quality-aware credit redistribution in code agent RL. Built on dynamic sampling that retains groups containing both passing and failing trajectories, GAGAR places all trajectories from each group in a shared workspace, where an SFT-trained agentic grader jointly inspects them and ranks the test-passing candidates. Based on this ranking, we downweight lower-ranked trajectories and proportionally rescale the advantages of all test-passing trajectories to restore their original sum. This sum-preserving redistribution retains the relative weights established by quality-based downweighting while shifting credit toward higher-quality implementations. We evaluate GAGAR at industrial scale using pre-RL SFT checkpoints of MiMo-V2.6-Flash (310B total parameters) and MiMo-V2.6-Pro (1.02T total parameters). Controlled code-only Flash experiments show improved code agent performance, reduced trajectory-length growth, and more stable training. We further apply GAGAR in large-scale mixed-task RL with both Flash and Pro. Our results support combining test-based verification with groupwise agentic grading to improve the quality and stability of code agent RL.

XiaomiMiMo Xiaomi MiMo
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Sep 25 2

Same Model, Different Harness: Different Coding-Agent Results

A coding agent combines a model with a harness, which decides what the model sees, which tools it can use, and how the work continues. We ask whether changing the harness changes the result when the model and task stay fixed. We compare two configurations of the same harness on three coding benchmarks. The control supplies the full conversation in time order, while the treatment keeps the same record but mechanically shortens older tool results as the context fills and responds to repeated or stalled work. Under tight context, the treatment raises mean per-task fail-to-pass fraction (F2PF) in all three pressure comparisons and increases complete solutions on SWE-bench Verified and SWE-bench Pro. The tight-window Verified comparison uses 169 tasks, a 20,480-token window, and a fixed 480-second attempt endpoint; on this cohort, treatment raises mean per-task F2PF from 28 percent to 49 percent and complete solutions from 43 to 72. Without model-specific retuning, the same frozen treatment also raises both endpoints on the same cohort for three additional models with different designs. In the wide-window Qwen3.6 comparisons, observed arm outcomes are close on Verified and Pro, while FeatureBench retains a higher mean per-task F2PF under treatment. On the wide-window Verified cohort, treatment also serves fewer prompt tokens per turn. Because changing the harness changed what unchanged model weights could accomplish, coding-agent evaluations should treat the model and harness together as the tested solver.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 25

CODA: Cascaded Online Discontinuity-Aware Alignment for Real-Time Image-Based Score Following

Real-time score following from sheet images remains chal- lenging because the model must process streaming au- dio while resolving highly repetitive visual patterns un- der strict latency constraints. Recent image-based meth- ods have attempted to use multi-resolution prediction by simultaneously predicting the positions of the active sys- tem, bar, and note. However, their predictions across these different levels of notation are independent, which makes the predictions unstable and introduces unnecessary ex- tra search space for bar- and note-level predictions. Most existing methods also lack mechanisms to recover from score discontinuities, such as repeats, da capo (D.C.), or coda jumps. This paper proposes CODA, to the best of our knowledge, the first real-time score following system that addresses both gaps. CODA explicitly exploits the cascaded structure of music scores: it first selects the ac- tive system, then the active bar within it, and finally the active note within the selected bar. This enforces pre- diction consistency across resolutions. A silence-driven break mode enables recovery from arbitrary score discon- tinuities without requiring knowledge of the repeat struc- ture. Evaluated on the Multimodal Sheet Music Dataset (MSMD) piano benchmarks, CODA achieves state-of-the- art tracking accuracy and discontinuity-recovery perfor- mance under real-time throughput. Code is available at https://github.com/ValleyC/CODA.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 23

Thinking in a Low-Resource Language: What SFT Builds, What RL Fixes, What Accuracy Cannot See

Take three frontier mixture-of-experts models (Alibaba, OpenAI, NVIDIA; 3.6-4.0B active parameters each) and fine-tune them to reason in a low-resource language. On accuracy benchmarks almost nothing happens, and the benchmark itself is noise at this scale: changing only the random seed moves the score by 7.7 points, more than every data and recipe effect we measured. That null is our first result. The real changes live where accuracy cannot see. Base models never think in Greek: 0 of 1,000 reasoning traces, even when the question is Greek, so the model answers correctly while reasoning in a form its user cannot read, audit, or correct. After supervised fine-tuning (SFT), every released checkpoint reasons in the language of the question on ~98% of items, one family at 3x fewer tokens, with judged grammaticality improving on all four models and general ability within a few points of each base: nothing was forgotten, and fluency was gained. We propose six behavioural dimensions that make such changes measurable, each gated to reject any metric that correlates with output length, and we report how our own instruments lied: six failures, each caught by a control. What SFT cannot do is fix its own defects: a quarter of answers skip the requested format, answers leak into the reasoning channel, and an explicit "think in English" is obeyed under half the time. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, pre-registered before training, fixes the first two outright (fallback 24% to 2.5%, leak 3.5% to 0.0%, both against a flat random-reward control) and moves the third (+9.1pp), while the Greek reasoning habit survives an accuracy-only gradient untouched. We release five checkpoints. The instruments, the controls and the pre-registration travel to any low-resource language; Greek is the case that let us measure them.

KIEFERSA KIEFER
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Aug 18 3

AI World Cup 2026: Benchmarking Large Language Models for End-to-End Football Tournament Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

  • 2 authors
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Aug 3

Auditing Multimodal LLM Raters: Central Tendency Bias in Clinical Ordinal Scoring

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

A Controlled Candidate-Set Benchmark for Offline Satellite-Security Plan Decomposition

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 28