Daily Papers

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference, uncertainty in estimates arises naturally from the random assignment of the treatments, rather than from hypothesized sampling from a large population. We show how this perspective relates to regression analyses for randomized experiments. We discuss the analyses of stratified, paired, and clustered randomized experiments, and we stress the general efficiency gains from stratification. We also discuss complications in randomized experiments such as non-compliance. In the presence of non-compliance we contrast intention-to-treat analyses with instrumental variables analyses allowing for general treatment effect heterogeneity. We consider in detail estimation and inference for heterogeneous treatment effects in settings with (possibly many) covariates. These methods allow researchers to explore heterogeneity by identifying subpopulations with different treatment effects while maintaining the ability to construct valid confidence intervals. We also discuss optimal assignment to treatment based on covariates in such settings. Finally, we discuss estimation and inference in experiments in settings with interactions between units, both in general network settings and in settings where the population is partitioned into groups with all interactions contained within these groups.

Large language models are transforming the creative process by offering unprecedented capabilities to algorithmically generate ideas. While these tools can enhance human creativity when people co-create with them, it's unclear how this will impact unassisted human creativity. We conducted two large pre-registered parallel experiments involving 1,100 participants attempting tasks targeting the two core components of creativity, divergent and convergent thinking. We compare the effects of two forms of large language model (LLM) assistance -- a standard LLM providing direct answers and a coach-like LLM offering guidance -- with a control group receiving no AI assistance, and focus particularly on how all groups perform in a final, unassisted stage. Our findings reveal that while LLM assistance can provide short-term boosts in creativity during assisted tasks, it may inadvertently hinder independent creative performance when users work without assistance, raising concerns about the long-term impact on human creativity and cognition.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Recent debates raised concerns that language models may favor certain viewpoints. But what if the solution is not to aim for a 'view from nowhere' but rather to leverage different viewpoints? We introduce Plurals, a system and Python library for pluralistic AI deliberation. Plurals consists of Agents (LLMs, optionally with personas) which deliberate within customizable Structures, with Moderators overseeing deliberation. Plurals is a generator of simulated social ensembles. Plurals integrates with government datasets to create nationally representative personas, includes deliberation templates inspired by deliberative democracy, and allows users to customize both information-sharing structures and deliberation behavior within Structures. Six case studies demonstrate fidelity to theoretical constructs and efficacy. Three randomized experiments show simulated focus groups produced output resonant with an online sample of the relevant audiences (chosen over zero-shot generation in 75% of trials). Plurals is both a paradigm and a concrete system for pluralistic AI. The Plurals library is available at https://github.com/josh-ashkinaze/plurals and will be continually updated.

AI assistance produces significant productivity gains across professional domains, particularly for novice workers. Yet how this assistance affects the development of skills required to effectively supervise AI remains unclear. Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition in the process. We conduct randomized experiments to study how developers gained mastery of a new asynchronous programming library with and without the assistance of AI. We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average. Participants who fully delegated coding tasks showed some productivity improvements, but at the cost of learning the library. We identify six distinct AI interaction patterns, three of which involve cognitive engagement and preserve learning outcomes even when participants receive AI assistance. Our findings suggest that AI-enhanced productivity is not a shortcut to competence and AI assistance should be carefully adopted into workflows to preserve skill formation -- particularly in safety-critical domains.

In regression and causal inference, controlled subgroup selection aims to identify, with inferential guarantees, a subgroup (defined as a subset of the covariate space) on which the average response or treatment effect is above a given threshold. E.g., in a clinical trial, it may be of interest to find a subgroup with a positive average treatment effect. However, existing methods either lack inferential guarantees, heavily restrict the search for the subgroup, or sacrifice efficiency by naive data splitting. We propose a novel framework called chiseling that allows the analyst to interactively refine and test a candidate subgroup by iteratively shrinking it. The sole restriction is that the shrinkage direction only depends on the points outside the current subgroup, but otherwise the analyst may leverage any prior information or machine learning algorithm. Despite this flexibility, chiseling controls the probability that the discovered subgroup is null (e.g., has a non-positive average treatment effect) under minimal assumptions: for example, in randomized experiments, this inferential validity guarantee holds under only bounded moment conditions. When applied to a variety of simulated datasets and a real survey experiment, chiseling identifies substantially better subgroups than existing methods with inferential guarantees.

This study addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) for advertising campaigns in online marketplaces where complete randomized experimentation is infeasible. We propose two key innovations: (1) a shrinkage estimator that optimally combines observational and experimental data without assuming smooth treatment effects across campaigns, and (2) a Bayesian adaptive experimental design framework that efficiently selects campaigns for randomized evaluation that minimizes cumulative risk. Our shrinkage estimator achieves lower risk compared to existing methods by balancing bias-variance tradeoffs, while our adaptive design significantly reduces the costs of campaign randomization. We establish theoretical guarantees including asymptotic normality and regret bounds. In an application to Amazon Ads data analyzing 2,583 campaigns, our approach achieves equivalent estimation precision while requiring only half of the randomized experiments needed by random sampling, the standard method widely used in practice today. The proposed method serves as a practical solution for marketplace platforms to efficiently measure advertising effectiveness while managing experimentation costs.

A vast array of transformative technologies developed over the past decade has enabled measurement and perturbation at ever increasing scale, yet our understanding of many systems remains limited by experimental capacity. Overcoming this limitation is not simply a matter of reducing costs with existing approaches; for complex biological systems it will likely never be possible to comprehensively measure and perturb every combination of variables of interest. There is, however, a growing body of work - much of it foundational and precedent setting - that extracts a surprising amount of information from highly under sampled data. For a wide array of biological questions, especially the study of genetic interactions, approaches like these will be crucial to obtain a comprehensive understanding. Yet, there is no coherent framework that unifies these methods, provides a rigorous mathematical foundation to understand their limitations and capabilities, allows us to understand through a common lens their surprising successes, and suggests how we might crystalize the key concepts to transform experimental biology. Here, we review prior work on this topic - both the biology and the mathematical foundations of randomization and low dimensional inference - and propose a general framework to make data collection in a wide array of studies vastly more efficient using random experiments and composite experiments.

Safe and efficient shape-aware navigation in heterogeneous crowds and robot fleets remains challenging. Traditional approaches often assume homogeneous robots, sparse workspaces, simplified geometry, offline computation, or handcrafted parameters to make the problem tractable, which limits their deployment in dense crowd scenarios. Toward this end, we propose Shape-Aware Reinforcement Learned Model Predictive Control (SRL-MPC), a method for safe, efficient, and adaptive navigation in crowds with heterogeneous shapes without geometry simplification. To encode shape-aware safety, we formulate high-order control barrier function (HOCBF) constraints from geometric separation features (GSFs) based on support function transformation. A reinforcement learning (RL) framework then learns a neural policy that reads GSFs and outputs real-time MPC parameter updates, enabling the MPC solver to adapt to neighboring crowd geometries. The key advantage of SRL-MPC is that it preserves the safety structure and generalizability of MPC while integrating the adaptability and intelligence of RL. Experiments in randomized crowd scenarios with arbitrary shaped robot fleets demonstrate the effectiveness, scalability, and robustness of SRL-MPC. The results show that SRL-MPC substantially outperforms representative baselines in safety and adaptability. Project website: https://hanruihua.github.io/srl_mpc_project/

In-context learning (ICL) has revolutionized the capabilities of transformer models in NLP. In our project, we extend the understanding of the mechanisms underpinning ICL by exploring whether transformers can learn from sequential, non-textual function class data distributions. We introduce a novel sliding window sequential function class and employ toy-sized transformers with a GPT-2 architecture to conduct our experiments. Our analysis indicates that these models can indeed leverage ICL when trained on non-textual sequential function classes. Additionally, our experiments with randomized y-label sequences highlights that transformers retain some ICL capabilities even when the label associations are obfuscated. We provide evidence that transformers can reason with and understand sequentiality encoded within function classes, as reflected by the effective learning of our proposed tasks. Our results also show that the performance deteriorated with increasing randomness in the labels, though not to the extent one might expect, implying a potential robustness of learned sequentiality against label noise. Future research may want to look into how previous explanations of transformers, such as induction heads and task vectors, relate to sequentiality in ICL in these toy examples. Our investigation lays the groundwork for further research into how transformers process and perceive sequential data.

We introduce a randomized topological augmentor based on Schur complements for Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL). Given a graph laplacian matrix, the technique generates unbiased approximations of its Schur complements and treats the corresponding graphs as augmented views. We discuss the benefits of our approach, provide theoretical justifications and present connections with graph diffusion. Unlike previous efforts, we study the empirical effectiveness of the augmentor in a controlled fashion by varying the design choices for subsequent GCL phases, such as encoding and contrasting. Extensive experiments on node and graph classification benchmarks demonstrate that our technique consistently outperforms pre-defined and adaptive augmentation approaches to achieve state-of-the-art results.

We develop a model-free policy gradient method for discrete-time mean-field control (MFC). In MFC, the policy affects the objective both through the controlled dynamics and through the population distribution. Standard REINFORCE estimators capture the first effect but not the second. We introduce Transport REINFORCE, a transport map-based approach that perturbs a suitable transformation of the population distribution to estimate this missing mean-field contribution. The method applies to both finite and continuous state spaces. In finite state spaces, we perturb the population distribution directly on the probability simplex through a convex combination of the current population weights and random weights. In continuous state spaces, we project the population distribution onto the manifold of Gaussian mixtures, and then randomize it via a transport map that ensures the perturbed law remains within this manifold. We prove consistency of the perturbed objective and gradient as the perturbation vanishes, and derive bias and mean-square error bounds for the resulting sample-based gradient estimator. Numerical experiments on several MFC benchmarks show that Transport REINFORCE improves over standard REINFORCE.

Deep neural networks are being used increasingly to automate data analysis and decision making, yet their decision-making process is largely unclear and is difficult to explain to the end users. In this paper, we address the problem of Explainable AI for deep neural networks that take images as input and output a class probability. We propose an approach called RISE that generates an importance map indicating how salient each pixel is for the model's prediction. In contrast to white-box approaches that estimate pixel importance using gradients or other internal network state, RISE works on black-box models. It estimates importance empirically by probing the model with randomly masked versions of the input image and obtaining the corresponding outputs. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art importance extraction methods using both an automatic deletion/insertion metric and a pointing metric based on human-annotated object segments. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets show that our approach matches or exceeds the performance of other methods, including white-box approaches. Project page: http://cs-people.bu.edu/vpetsiuk/rise/

We study the problem of constructing Steiner Minimal Trees (SMTs) in hyperbolic space. Exact SMT computation is NP-hard, and existing hyperbolic heuristics such as HyperSteiner are deterministic and often get trapped in locally suboptimal configurations. We introduce Randomized HyperSteiner (RHS), a stochastic Delaunay triangulation heuristic that incorporates randomness into the expansion process and refines candidate trees via Riemannian gradient descent optimization. Experiments on synthetic data sets and a real-world single-cell transcriptomic data show that RHS outperforms Minimum Spanning Tree (MST), Neighbour Joining, and vanilla HyperSteiner (HS). In near-boundary configurations, RHS can achieve a 32% reduction in total length over HS, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness in diverse data regimes.

Many hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for the application of ground state energy estimation in quantum chemistry involve estimating the expectation value of a molecular Hamiltonian with respect to a quantum state through measurements on a quantum device. To guide the selection of measurement methods designed for this observable estimation problem, we propose a benchmark called CSHOREBench (Common States and Hamiltonians for ObseRvable Estimation Benchmark) that assesses the performance of these methods against a set of common molecular Hamiltonians and common states encountered during the runtime of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms. In CSHOREBench, we account for resource utilization of a quantum computer through measurements of a prepared state, and a classical computer through computational runtime spent in proposing measurements and classical post-processing of acquired measurement outcomes. We apply CSHOREBench considering a variety of measurement methods on Hamiltonians of size up to 16 qubits. Our discussion is aided by using the framework of decision diagrams which provides an efficient data structure for various randomized methods and illustrate how to derandomize distributions on decision diagrams. In numerical simulations, we find that the methods of decision diagrams and derandomization are the most preferable. In experiments on IBM quantum devices against small molecules, we observe that decision diagrams reduces the number of measurements made by classical shadows by more than 80%, that made by locally biased classical shadows by around 57%, and consistently require fewer quantum measurements along with lower classical computational runtime than derandomization. Furthermore, CSHOREBench is empirically efficient to run when considering states of random quantum ansatz with fixed depth.

Using a high Update-To-Data (UTD) ratio, model-based methods have recently achieved much higher sample efficiency than previous model-free methods for continuous-action DRL benchmarks. In this paper, we introduce a simple model-free algorithm, Randomized Ensembled Double Q-Learning (REDQ), and show that its performance is just as good as, if not better than, a state-of-the-art model-based algorithm for the MuJoCo benchmark. Moreover, REDQ can achieve this performance using fewer parameters than the model-based method, and with less wall-clock run time. REDQ has three carefully integrated ingredients which allow it to achieve its high performance: (i) a UTD ratio >> 1; (ii) an ensemble of Q functions; (iii) in-target minimization across a random subset of Q functions from the ensemble. Through carefully designed experiments, we provide a detailed analysis of REDQ and related model-free algorithms. To our knowledge, REDQ is the first successful model-free DRL algorithm for continuous-action spaces using a UTD ratio >> 1.

Tensor randomized Kaczmarz (TRK) methods are efficient row-action solvers for tensor linear systems under the t-product framework. We study their behavior under a doubly noisy perturbation model. In this model, both the system tensor and the right-hand side tensor are corrupted. We first analyze standard TRK and derive an expected error recursion with two terms. One term is contractive, and the other is a persistent perturbation term. This explains the noise-limited and semi-convergent behavior that can occur when the observed tensor system is inconsistent. We then introduce a spectrally damped tensor randomized Kaczmarz method (SD-TRK). We prove an expected error recursion for SD-TRK that separates error propagation from noise injection. The bound makes explicit a speed-robustness trade-off. We also give an FFT-based implementation that applies the damped update slice-wise in the Fourier domain. This implementation allows frequency-dependent damping parameters in practice. Numerical experiments on synthetic tensor systems illustrate the stabilization behavior of SD-TRK relative to standard TRK in noisy and ill-conditioned settings. We also include a two-pass image reconstruction comparison under the same noisy reconstruction pipeline.

Recent advancements in diffusion-based models have demonstrated significant success in generating images from text. However, video editing models have not yet reached the same level of visual quality and user control. To address this, we introduce RAVE, a zero-shot video editing method that leverages pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models without additional training. RAVE takes an input video and a text prompt to produce high-quality videos while preserving the original motion and semantic structure. It employs a novel noise shuffling strategy, leveraging spatio-temporal interactions between frames, to produce temporally consistent videos faster than existing methods. It is also efficient in terms of memory requirements, allowing it to handle longer videos. RAVE is capable of a wide range of edits, from local attribute modifications to shape transformations. In order to demonstrate the versatility of RAVE, we create a comprehensive video evaluation dataset ranging from object-focused scenes to complex human activities like dancing and typing, and dynamic scenes featuring swimming fish and boats. Our qualitative and quantitative experiments highlight the effectiveness of RAVE in diverse video editing scenarios compared to existing methods. Our code, dataset and videos can be found in https://rave-video.github.io.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) has been proven a promising method for endowing an arbitrary image classifier with certified robustness. However, the substantial uncertainty inherent in the high-dimensional isotropic Gaussian noise imposes the curse of dimensionality on RS. Specifically, the upper bound of {ell_2} certified robustness radius provided by RS exhibits a diminishing trend with the expansion of the input dimension d, proportionally decreasing at a rate of 1/d. This paper explores the feasibility of providing {ell_2} certified robustness for high-dimensional input through the utilization of dual smoothing in the lower-dimensional space. The proposed Dual Randomized Smoothing (DRS) down-samples the input image into two sub-images and smooths the two sub-images in lower dimensions. Theoretically, we prove that DRS guarantees a tight {ell_2} certified robustness radius for the original input and reveal that DRS attains a superior upper bound on the {ell_2} robustness radius, which decreases proportionally at a rate of (1/sqrt m + 1/sqrt n ) with m+n=d. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of DRS, which exhibits a notable capability to integrate with established methodologies, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and {ell_2} certified robustness baselines of RS on the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiasong0501/DRS.

Certification for machine learning is proving that no adversarial sample can evade a model within a range under certain conditions, a necessity for safety-critical domains. Common certification methods for segmentation use a flat set of fine-grained classes, leading to high abstain rates due to model uncertainty across many classes. We propose a novel, more practical setting, which certifies pixels within a multi-level hierarchy, and adaptively relaxes the certification to a coarser level for unstable components classic methods would abstain from, effectively lowering the abstain rate whilst providing more certified semantically meaningful information. We mathematically formulate the problem setup, introduce an adaptive hierarchical certification algorithm and prove the correctness of its guarantees. Since certified accuracy does not take the loss of information into account for coarser classes, we introduce the Certified Information Gain (CIG) metric, which is proportional to the class granularity level. Our extensive experiments on the datasets Cityscapes, PASCAL-Context, ACDC and COCO-Stuff demonstrate that our adaptive algorithm achieves a higher CIG and lower abstain rate compared to the current state-of-the-art certification method. Our code can be found here: https://github.com/AlaaAnani/adaptive-certify.

Most first-order optimizers treat matrix-valued parameters as vectors, ignoring the intrinsic geometry of hidden-layer weights in neural networks. Muon addresses this mismatch by updating along the polar factor of a momentum matrix, but its theoretical understanding has lagged behind practice. In particular, practical implementations incorporate Nesterov momentum, compute the polar factor only approximately, and operate with stochastic gradients that may be heavy-tailed. We close this gap by developing a convergence theory for Muon with Nesterov momentum and inexact polar decomposition in non-convex matrix optimization under heavy-tailed noise. Our analysis builds on a unified framework for inexact polar decomposition that captures practical iterative approximations such as Newton-Schulz and quantifies how their errors propagate through the optimization dynamics. Under this framework, we establish an optimal iteration and sample complexity of O left(varepsilon^{-(3α-2){(α-1)}} right) for finding an varepsilon-stationary point, where αin(1,2] denotes the heavy-tail index. For the inexact-polar setting with σ_1=0, we also provide guarantees that do not require prior knowledge of α. We analyze a randomized low-rank polar decomposition that is substantially more efficient than full-space methods while remaining compatible with our theory. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed inexact and randomized variants.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

Task robust adaptation is a long-standing pursuit in sequential decision-making. Some risk-averse strategies, e.g., the conditional value-at-risk principle, are incorporated in domain randomization or meta reinforcement learning to prioritize difficult tasks in optimization, which demand costly intensive evaluations. The efficiency issue prompts the development of robust active task sampling to train adaptive policies, where risk-predictive models are used to surrogate policy evaluation. This work characterizes the optimization pipeline of robust active task sampling as a Markov decision process, posits theoretical and practical insights, and constitutes robustness concepts in risk-averse scenarios. Importantly, we propose an easy-to-implement method, referred to as Posterior and Diversity Synergized Task Sampling (PDTS), to accommodate fast and robust sequential decision-making. Extensive experiments show that PDTS unlocks the potential of robust active task sampling, significantly improves the zero-shot and few-shot adaptation robustness in challenging tasks, and even accelerates the learning process under certain scenarios. Our project website is at https://thu-rllab.github.io/PDTS_project_page.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter beta is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying beta. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples that find samples close to the original image but can make the model misclassify. Even with access only to the model's output, an attacker can employ black-box attacks to generate such adversarial examples. In this work, we propose a simple and lightweight defense against black-box attacks by adding random noise to hidden features at intermediate layers of the model at inference time. Our theoretical analysis confirms that this method effectively enhances the model's resilience against both score-based and decision-based black-box attacks. Importantly, our defense does not necessitate adversarial training and has minimal impact on accuracy, rendering it applicable to any pre-trained model. Our analysis also reveals the significance of selectively adding noise to different parts of the model based on the gradient of the adversarial objective function, which can be varied during the attack. We demonstrate the robustness of our defense against multiple black-box attacks through extensive empirical experiments involving diverse models with various architectures.

A growing failure mode in agent evaluation and training is that models can achieve high evaluation scores by exploiting shortcuts instead of solving the intended task, producing deceptive performance. This makes evaluation scores unreliable as measures of true task-solving ability. We propose CapCode, a framework for constructing coding datasets with randomized tests whose best achievable non-cheating performance is deliberately capped below one. This capped-performance design gives evaluation scores a clearer interpretation: scores substantially above the cap are implausible and therefore provide evidence of cheating. To prevent cheating, we propose CapReward, a reward design based on the CapCode principle to discourage optimization beyond the cap. Experiments across multiple datasets show that CapCode detects cheating while preserving performance ranking of models, and CapReward reduces cheating behavior, yielding models that better follow the intended task specification.

Model-Free Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms either learn how to map states to expected rewards or search for policies that can maximize a certain performance function. Model-Based algorithms instead, aim to learn an approximation of the underlying model of the RL environment and then use it in combination with planning algorithms. Upside-Down Reinforcement Learning (UDRL) is a novel learning paradigm that aims to learn how to predict actions from states and desired commands. This task is formulated as a Supervised Learning problem and has successfully been tackled by Neural Networks (NNs). In this paper, we investigate whether function approximation algorithms other than NNs can also be used within a UDRL framework. Our experiments, performed over several popular optimal control benchmarks, show that tree-based methods like Random Forests and Extremely Randomized Trees can perform just as well as NNs with the significant benefit of resulting in policies that are inherently more interpretable than NNs, therefore paving the way for more transparent, safe, and robust RL.

During a geosteering operation the well path is intentionally adjusted in response to the new data acquired while drilling. To achieve consistent high-quality decisions, especially when drilling in complex environments, decision support systems can help cope with high volumes of data and interpretation complexities. They can assimilate the real-time measurements into a probabilistic earth model and use the updated model for decision recommendations. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have enabled a wide range of methods that redistribute computational cost from on-line to off-line calculations. In this paper, we introduce two ML techniques into the geosteering decision support framework. Firstly, a complex earth model representation is generated using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Secondly, a commercial extra-deep electromagnetic simulator is represented using a Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the combination of the GAN and the FDNN in an ensemble randomized maximum likelihood data assimilation scheme provides real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty. This yields reduction of geological uncertainty ahead of the drill-bit from the measurements gathered behind and around the well bore.

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) in mobile networks remains a challenging task due to the need for interpretability, domain expertise, and causal reasoning. In this work, we propose a lightweight framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for RCA. To do so, we introduce TeleLogs, a curated dataset of annotated troubleshooting problems designed to benchmark RCA capabilities. Our evaluation reveals that existing open-source reasoning LLMs struggle with these problems, underscoring the need for domain-specific adaptation. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage training methodology that combines supervised fine-tuning with reinforcement learning to improve the accuracy and reasoning quality of LLMs. The proposed approach fine-tunes a series of RCA models to integrate domain knowledge and generate structured, multi-step diagnostic explanations, improving both interpretability and effectiveness. Extensive experiments across multiple LLM sizes show significant performance gains over state-of-the-art reasoning and non-reasoning models, including strong generalization to randomized test variants. These results demonstrate the promise of domain-adapted, reasoning-enhanced LLMs for practical and explainable RCA in network operation and management.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) show strong visualization interpretation, yet it is unclear whether their responses reflect genuine reasoning over visual evidence or factual priors learned during training. Current evaluations mix these two sources, obscuring when correct visual interpretation is overridden by memorized facts. We present a framework that isolates visual correctness from factual correctness, revealing validity limitations in existing visualization literacy assessments. Across three experiments with 15 state-of-the-art LVLMs: (1) several models reach human-level performance on standard tests (VLAT), but this may reflect factual recall rather than visual understanding, while randomized-data tests (reVLAT) underestimate literacy when correct visual interpretation is superseded by factual priors. (2) Using our Counterfactual Visualization Literacy Assessment Test (CVLAT) with capability-normalized arbitration metrics, we classify models by the sign of their visual-factual reliance index (VFRI), revealing a visualization-oriented majority and a factual knowledge-oriented minority, though several near-zero cases warrant caution. A human baseline (N=30) on the same counterfactual items confirms that people overwhelmingly follow the chart under conflict, providing a human reference point. (3) Prompt-based intervention can shift prioritization, but its effectiveness is highly model-dependent and direction-asymmetric, and high chart-reading capability does not predict prompt-controllability. Overall, high visualization accuracy is not sufficient evidence of faithful visual reasoning: reliable integration into visual analytics requires evaluating not only visualization literacy but also how models arbitrate between visual evidence and factual priors when the two diverge. Benchmark and code: https://github.com/JaeyoungKim-HCIL/CVLAT

Generalist robot policies exhibit strong capabilities, but their robustness in complex and unseen environments remains limited. Scaling robot learning and evaluation in diverse real-world environments remains costly and challenging. Action-conditioned world models offer a promising alternative, but they often suffer from limited action controllability and poor generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To this end, we present GeniWorld, an interactive world model for robots that generalizes robustly across unseen scenarios. Building on pretrained video generative models, we use URDF-based rendering to transform numerical actions into visual action representations, enabling spatially grounded action control. By explicitly decoupling embodiment kinematics from environmental dynamics, our model mitigates scene overfitting and facilitates modeling of robot-environment interactions. To achieve closed-loop control, we construct an autoregressive video prediction model integrated with high-frequency robot kinematic control, enabling interaction with both robot policies and human teleoperators. In our experiments, even when trained solely on limited fixed-scene data, our model achieves superior in-domain performance and robust zero-shot generalization to highly randomized, unseen environments. For downstream applications, GeniWorld serves as a scalable policy evaluator that remains reliable under environmental perturbations. Furthermore, even with limited real-world demonstrations, GeniWorld generates diverse manipulation trajectories within the world model, improving downstream policy performance and robustness in complex environments.

When are multi-agent LLM systems merely a collection of individual agents versus an integrated collective with higher-order structure? We introduce an information-theoretic framework to test -- in a purely data-driven way -- whether multi-agent systems show signs of higher-order structure. This information decomposition lets us measure whether dynamical emergence is present in multi-agent LLM systems, localize it, and distinguish spurious temporal coupling from performance-relevant cross-agent synergy. We implement a practical criterion and an emergence capacity criterion operationalized as partial information decomposition of time-delayed mutual information (TDMI). We apply our framework to experiments using a simple guessing game without direct agent communication and minimal group-level feedback with three randomized interventions. Groups in the control condition exhibit strong temporal synergy but little coordinated alignment across agents. Assigning a persona to each agent introduces stable identity-linked differentiation. Combining personas with an instruction to ``think about what other agents might do'' shows identity-linked differentiation and goal-directed complementarity across agents. Taken together, our framework establishes that multi-agent LLM systems can be steered with prompt design from mere aggregates to higher-order collectives. Our results are robust across emergence measures and entropy estimators, and not explained by coordination-free baselines or temporal dynamics alone. Without attributing human-like cognition to the agents, the patterns of interaction we observe mirror well-established principles of collective intelligence in human groups: effective performance requires both alignment on shared objectives and complementary contributions across members.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

In this paper, we present improved learning-augmented algorithms for the multi-option ski rental problem. Learning-augmented algorithms take ML predictions as an added part of the input and incorporates these predictions in solving the given problem. Due to their unique strength that combines the power of ML predictions with rigorous performance guarantees, they have been extensively studied in the context of online optimization problems. Even though ski rental problems are one of the canonical problems in the field of online optimization, only deterministic algorithms were previously known for multi-option ski rental, with or without learning augmentation. We present the first randomized learning-augmented algorithm for this problem, surpassing previous performance guarantees given by deterministic algorithms. Our learning-augmented algorithm is based on a new, provably best-possible randomized competitive algorithm for the problem. Our results are further complemented by lower bounds for deterministic and randomized algorithms, and computational experiments evaluating our algorithms' performance improvements.

Robot manipulation has seen tremendous progress in recent years, with imitation learning policies enabling successful performance of dexterous and hard-to-model tasks. Concurrently, scaling data and model size has led to the development of capable language and vision foundation models, motivating large-scale efforts to create general-purpose robot foundation models. While these models have garnered significant enthusiasm and investment, meaningful evaluation of real-world performance remains a challenge, limiting both the pace of development and inhibiting a nuanced understanding of current capabilities. In this paper, we rigorously evaluate multitask robot manipulation policies, referred to as Large Behavior Models (LBMs), by extending the Diffusion Policy paradigm across a corpus of simulated and real-world robot data. We propose and validate an evaluation pipeline to rigorously analyze the capabilities of these models with statistical confidence. We compare against single-task baselines through blind, randomized trials in a controlled setting, using both simulation and real-world experiments. We find that multi-task pretraining makes the policies more successful and robust, and enables teaching complex new tasks more quickly, using a fraction of the data when compared to single-task baselines. Moreover, performance predictably increases as pretraining scale and diversity grows. Project page: https://toyotaresearchinstitute.github.io/lbm1/

Industrial procurement requires language models to bridge informal buyer jargon, sparse marketplace attributes, and authoritative engineering standards under strict safety tolerances. We present IndustryLLM, an open-weight industrial language model trained from Qwen3.5-35B-A3B-Base (35B total parameters with ~3B activated per token, with the vision encoder frozen). Rather than relying on generic text scaling, we introduce a failure-driven adaptation recipe spanning continued pre-training (CPT) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). CPT leverages a curated ~100B-token corpus integrating 5B tokens of national standards (e.g., GB/T) and technical archives, 10B tokens of de-identified real-world industrial transaction and inquiry records, and 60B tokens of general replay. To overcome register mismatch and factual brittleness, we systematically reconstruct an estimated 20B-token domain subset via multi-register rewriting across 10 genres and 8 writing styles, confidence-routed minimal factual editing, and error-targeted QA synthesis (resolving colloquial typos like '42-luo-mu' -> 42CrMo, expanding ambiguous codes like '16674' -> GB/T 16674, and clarifying conflicting dimensional specs). For downstream deployment, we formalize an evidence-gated constraint-evaluation interface enforcing three-valued logic where unverified product evidence remains unknown rather than satisfied. Offline evaluations demonstrate consistent gains on procurement-query structuring (+2.97 percentage points in exact match, 95% CI [2.11, 3.86] in No-Think mode), while randomized online A/B experiments in production yield substantial improvements (+4.25% GMV, +8.3% satisfied inquiries) alongside a latency reduction from 6-7 s to 1.5 s. Model weights and configs are released at https://huggingface.co/alibaba-multimodal-industrial-ai/IndustryLLM.

When a benchmark's accuracy saturates, it is often retired and replaced with a more challenging version. We show that this approach privileges accuracy and misses the opportunity to study six other key dimensions of agent performance: construct validity issues such as shortcuts, out-of-distribution generalizability, efficiency, reliability, the relative importance of the model versus the scaffold, and uplift from human-agent collaboration. We use CORE-Bench Hard, a benchmark for computational reproducibility of scientific code, as a case study to demonstrate that measuring agents along these dimensions yields meaningful insights into agent performance even after accuracy saturates. First, we surface threats to construct validity in CORE-Bench Hard that are difficult to anticipate with less capable agents. We introduce an improved benchmark, CORE-Bench v1.1, and an out-of-distribution task suite, CORE-Bench OOD. Second, we find that despite accuracy saturation, CORE-Bench v1.1 remains useful for measuring efficiency, reliability, model performance, and scaffold performance. Finally, we conduct a small-scale randomized experiment to measure uplift from human-agent collaboration on real-world computational reproducibility tasks. We find a statistically significant speedup by about a factor of two -- likely underestimated due to one-fifth of human-only reproductions reaching the time limit before completing -- and describe various other findings. Together, our contributions present a more rigorous alternative to the dominant accuracy-centric evaluation paradigm.

Large language models learn similar behaviours, yet it remains unclear what structure they share or how to change one behaviour without disturbing others. The Fisher-Rao geometry of next-token probabilities connects these questions: behaviour determines this geometry up to output-preserving symmetries, whereas activation geometry depends on coordinates. Across transformer, state-space and recurrent models, output geometries agree more strongly than activation geometries, and shared geometry supports semantic-category transfer. Agreement with human word choices increases with predictive accuracy, scale and training, and improves further after model-only calibration. Token probabilities and read-out geometry jointly predict the spectrum and its effective dimension. Controlled language assignments show that geometry follows the language law across architectures. Pretraining corpus statistics predict held-out fact acquisition without recalibration, while randomised experiments show that deeper evidence substantially delays acquisition across every tested architecture and evidence construction. Finally, the geometry prescribes minimum-disturbance local interventions, predicts their relative cost, and supports reusable control: updates learned on donor prompts transfer to unseen prompts while better preserving behaviour on reference prompts than Euclidean control. The same geometric correction improves steering, editing, attribution, dictionary learning and fine-tuning.

Social service programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food stamps) have eligibility rules that can be challenging to understand. For nonprofit caseworkers who often support clients in navigating a dozen or more complex programs, LLM-based chatbots may offer a means to provide better, faster help to clients whose situations may be less common. In this paper, we measure the potential effects of LLM-based chatbot suggestions on caseworkers' ability to provide accurate guidance. We first created a 770-question multiple-choice benchmark dataset of difficult, but realistic questions that a caseworker might receive. Next, using these benchmark questions and corresponding expert-verified answers, we conducted a randomized experiment with caseworkers recruited from nonprofit outreach organizations in Los Angeles. Caseworkers in the control condition did not see chatbot suggestions and had a mean accuracy of 49%. Caseworkers in the treatment condition saw chatbot suggestions that we artificially varied to range in aggregate accuracy from low (53%) to high (100%). Caseworker performance significantly improves as chatbot quality improves: high-quality chatbots (96-100% accurate) improved caseworker accuracy by 27 percentage points. At the question-level, incorrect chatbot suggestions substantially reduce caseworker accuracy, with a two-thirds reduction on easy questions where the control group performed best (without chatbot suggestions). Finally, improvements in caseworker accuracy level off as chatbot accuracy increases, a phenomenon that we call the "AI underreliance plateau," which is a concern for real-world deployment and highlights the importance of evaluating human-in-the-loop tools with their users.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

As people increasingly seek emotional support and companionship from AI chatbots, understanding how such interactions impact mental well-being becomes critical. We conducted a four-week randomized controlled experiment (n=981, >300k messages) to investigate how interaction modes (text, neutral voice, and engaging voice) and conversation types (open-ended, non-personal, and personal) influence four psychosocial outcomes: loneliness, social interaction with real people, emotional dependence on AI, and problematic AI usage. No significant effects were detected from experimental conditions, despite conversation analyses revealing differences in AI and human behavioral patterns across the conditions. Instead, participants who voluntarily used the chatbot more, regardless of assigned condition, showed consistently worse outcomes. Individuals' characteristics, such as higher trust and social attraction towards the AI chatbot, are associated with higher emotional dependence and problematic use. These findings raise deeper questions about how artificial companions may reshape the ways people seek, sustain, and substitute human connections.

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

Analogical reasoning is a unique ability of humans to address unfamiliar challenges by transferring strategies from relevant past experiences. One key finding in psychology is that compared with irrelevant past experiences, recalling relevant ones can help humans better handle new tasks. Coincidentally, the NLP community has also recently found that self-generating relevant examples in the context can help large language models (LLMs) better solve a given problem than hand-crafted prompts. However, it is yet not clear whether relevance is the key factor eliciting such capability, i.e., can LLMs benefit more from self-generated relevant examples than irrelevant ones? In this work, we systematically explore whether LLMs can truly perform analogical reasoning on a diverse set of reasoning tasks. With extensive experiments and analysis, we show that self-generated random examples can surprisingly achieve comparable or even better performance, e.g., 4% performance boost on GSM8K with random biological examples. We find that the accuracy of self-generated examples is the key factor and subsequently design two improved methods with significantly reduced inference costs. Overall, we aim to advance a deeper understanding of LLM analogical reasoning and hope this work stimulates further research in the design of self-generated contexts.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

While the evaluation of explanations is an important step towards trustworthy models, it needs to be done carefully, and the employed metrics need to be well-understood. Specifically model randomization testing is often overestimated and regarded as a sole criterion for selecting or discarding certain explanation methods. To address shortcomings of this test, we start by observing an experimental gap in the ranking of explanation methods between randomization-based sanity checks [1] and model output faithfulness measures (e.g. [25]). We identify limitations of model-randomization-based sanity checks for the purpose of evaluating explanations. Firstly, we show that uninformative attribution maps created with zero pixel-wise covariance easily achieve high scores in this type of checks. Secondly, we show that top-down model randomization preserves scales of forward pass activations with high probability. That is, channels with large activations have a high probility to contribute strongly to the output, even after randomization of the network on top of them. Hence, explanations after randomization can only be expected to differ to a certain extent. This explains the observed experimental gap. In summary, these results demonstrate the inadequacy of model-randomization-based sanity checks as a criterion to rank attribution methods.

Randomization tests have gained popularity for causal inference under network interference because they are finite-sample valid with minimal assumptions. However, existing procedures are limited as they primarily focus on the existence of spillovers through sharp null hypotheses on potential outcomes. In this paper, we expand the scope of randomization procedures in network settings by developing new tests for the monotonicity of spillover effects. These tests offer insights into whether spillover effects increase, decrease, or exhibit ``diminishing returns'' along certain network dimensions of interest. Our approach partitions the network into multiple (possibly overlapping) parts and tests a monotone contrast hypothesis in each sub-network. The test decisions can then be aggregated in various ways depending on how each test is constructed. We demonstrate our method by re-analyzing a large-scale policing experiment in Colombia, which reveals evidence of monotonicity related to the ``crime displacement hypothesis''. Our analysis suggests that crime spillovers on a control street increase with the number of nearby streets receiving more intense policing but diminish at higher exposure levels.

Large-Language Models like GPT-3 have the potential to enable HCI designers and researchers to create more human-like and helpful chatbots for specific applications. But evaluating the feasibility of these chatbots and designing prompts that optimize GPT-3 for a specific task is challenging. We present a case study in tackling these questions, applying GPT-3 to a brief 5-minute chatbot that anyone can talk to better manage their mood. We report a randomized factorial experiment with 945 participants on Mechanical Turk that tests three dimensions of prompt design to initialize the chatbot (identity, intent, and behaviour), and present both quantitative and qualitative analyses of conversations and user perceptions of the chatbot. We hope other HCI designers and researchers can build on this case study, for other applications of GPT-3 based chatbots to specific tasks, and build on and extend the methods we use for prompt design, and evaluation of the prompt design.

Hypothesis ranking is a crucial component of automated scientific discovery, particularly in natural sciences where wet-lab experiments are costly and throughput-limited. Existing approaches focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on large language model's internal reasoning without incorporating empirical outcomes from experiments. We introduce the task of experiment-guided ranking, which aims to prioritize candidate hypotheses based on the results of previously tested ones. However, developing such strategies is challenging due to the impracticality of repeatedly conducting real experiments in natural science domains. To address this, we propose a simulator grounded in three domain-informed assumptions, modeling hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a known ground truth hypothesis, perturbed by noise. We curate a dataset of 124 chemistry hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes to validate the simulator. Building on this simulator, we develop a pseudo experiment-guided ranking method that clusters hypotheses by shared functional characteristics and prioritizes candidates based on insights derived from simulated experimental feedback. Experiments show that our method outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition functions and the types of portfolio strategies used in papers discussing Bayesian Optimization. We also replicate the experiments and report our findings and compare them to the results in the paper. Code link: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1GZ14klEDoe3dcBeZKo5l8qqrKf_GmBDn?usp=sharing#scrollTo=XgIBau3O45_V.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

The Multi-armed bandit offer the advantage to learn and exploit the already learnt knowledge at the same time. This capability allows this approach to be applied in different domains, going from clinical trials where the goal is investigating the effects of different experimental treatments while minimizing patient losses, to adaptive routing where the goal is to minimize the delays in a network. This article provides a review of the recent results on applying bandit to real-life scenario and summarize the state of the art for each of these fields. Different techniques has been proposed to solve this problem setting, like epsilon-greedy, Upper confident bound (UCB) and Thompson Sampling (TS). We are showing here how this algorithms were adapted to solve the different problems of exploration exploitation.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Repeated Sampling (RS) is a simple inference-time algorithm that has been shown to improve model performance on complex tasks. Although it is an effective way of scaling inference time, it often struggles to generate diverse solution candidates, frequently relying on the same underlying approach to solve the problem and thus producing redundant samples. To address this limitation, we propose a new inference algorithm, GuidedSampling, which decouples the exploration and generation phases during inference, increasing diversity of generated candidate solutions. The exploration phase identifies multiple concepts that can be utilized to solve the problem, while the generation phase applies a specific concept to provide final solution candidates. We first define the theoretical bounds of GuidedSampling and then empirically demonstrate that it improves the performance of base model at pass@50 by on an average ~21.6% across various benchmarks compared to RS. Furthermore, models trained on trajectories of GuidedSampling exhibit substantial performance improvements at pass@5 by on an average ~9.7%, compared to models trained on traditional RS. Additionally, models trained with GuidedSampling increases the average number of concepts per instance (1.67 -> 3.03), yielding a diverse set of candidates than traditional RS.

The evaluation of machine learning models using human-labeled validation data can be expensive and time-consuming. AI-labeled synthetic data can be used to decrease the number of human annotations required for this purpose in a process called autoevaluation. We suggest efficient and statistically principled algorithms for this purpose that improve sample efficiency while remaining unbiased. These algorithms increase the effective human-labeled sample size by up to 50% on experiments with GPT-4.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

We present Hubble, a suite of fully open-source large language models (LLMs) for the scientific study of LLM memorization. Hubble models come in standard and perturbed variants: standard models are pretrained on a large English corpus, and perturbed models are trained in the same way but with controlled insertion of text (e.g., book passages, biographies, and test sets) designed to emulate key memorization risks. Our core release includes 8 models -- standard and perturbed models with 1B or 8B parameters, pretrained on 100B or 500B tokens -- establishing that memorization risks are determined by the frequency of sensitive data relative to size of the training corpus (i.e., a password appearing once in a smaller corpus is memorized better than the same password in a larger corpus). Our release also includes 6 perturbed models with text inserted at different pretraining phases, showing that sensitive data without continued exposure can be forgotten. These findings suggest two best practices for addressing memorization risks: to dilute sensitive data by increasing the size of the training corpus, and to order sensitive data to appear earlier in training. Beyond these general empirical findings, Hubble enables a broad range of memorization research; for example, analyzing the biographies reveals how readily different types of private information are memorized. We also demonstrate that the randomized insertions in Hubble make it an ideal testbed for membership inference and machine unlearning, and invite the community to further explore, benchmark, and build upon our work.

Large language models increasingly tackle hard reasoning problems by spending more test-time compute, yet the dominant strategy remains naive repeated sampling: draw many independent solutions and hope one is correct. Because such sampling explores only through local decoding noise, it tends to produce many near duplicate attempts rather than genuinely different ideas. We ask whether exploration can instead be steered at a semantic level, by first sampling problem specific concepts, hints, or strategies and then conditioning answer generation on them. We refine this into a simple, more exploratory procedure that emits many diverse concepts in a single trajectory, and evaluate it on hard problems where repeated sampling struggles. We then go a step further and make concept generation trainable: a small concept generator is optimized with reinforcement learning so that its concepts maximize the downstream success of a larger, frozen answer generator. On hard mathematical reasoning problems, the trained concept generator substantially improves the answer generator's pass@k over naive repeated sampling at the same answer generation allocation, surpasses concepts drawn from much larger untuned models, and transfers to answer generators it was never trained against, including a model from a different family. A small model can thus be trained into an effective, reusable search policy for a much larger one.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the scientific research pipeline. A key capability for this process is the ability to generate novel research ideas, and prior studies have found settings in which LLM-generated research ideas were judged as more novel than human-expert ideas. However, a good idea should not simply appear to be novel, it should also result in better research after being executed. To test whether AI-generated ideas lead to better research outcomes, we conduct an execution study by recruiting 43 expert researchers to execute randomly-assigned ideas, either written by experts or generated by an LLM. Each expert spent over 100 hours implementing the idea and wrote a 4-page short paper to document the experiments. All the executed projects are then reviewed blindly by expert NLP researchers. Comparing the review scores of the same ideas before and after execution, the scores of the LLM-generated ideas decrease significantly more than expert-written ideas on all evaluation metrics (novelty, excitement, effectiveness, and overall; p < 0.05), closing the gap between LLM and human ideas observed at the ideation stage. When comparing the aggregated review scores from the execution study, we even observe that for many metrics there is a flip in rankings where human ideas score higher than LLM ideas. This ideation-execution gap highlights the limitations of current LLMs in generating truly effective research ideas and the challenge of evaluating research ideas in the absence of execution outcomes.

Feedforward neural networks are widely used as universal predictive models to fit data distribution. Common gradient-based learning, however, suffers from many drawbacks making the training process ineffective and time-consuming. Alternative randomized learning does not use gradients but selects hidden node parameters randomly. This makes the training process extremely fast. However, the problem in randomized learning is how to determine the random parameters. A recently proposed method uses autoencoders for unsupervised parameter learning. This method showed superior performance on classification tasks. In this work, we apply this method to regression problems, and, finding that it has some drawbacks, we show how to improve it. We propose a learning method of autoencoders that controls the produced random weights. We also propose how to determine the biases of hidden nodes. We empirically compare autoencoder based learning with other randomized learning methods proposed recently for regression and find that despite the proposed improvement of the autoencoder based learning, it does not outperform its competitors in fitting accuracy. Moreover, the method is much more complex than its competitors.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We advance the study of incentivized bandit exploration, in which arm choices are viewed as recommendations and are required to be Bayesian incentive compatible. Recent work has shown under certain independence assumptions that after collecting enough initial samples, the popular Thompson sampling algorithm becomes incentive compatible. We give an analog of this result for linear bandits, where the independence of the prior is replaced by a natural convexity condition. This opens up the possibility of efficient and regret-optimal incentivized exploration in high-dimensional action spaces. In the semibandit model, we also improve the sample complexity for the pre-Thompson sampling phase of initial data collection.

Designing recommendation systems with limited or no available training data remains a challenge. To that end, a new combinatorial optimization problem is formulated to generate optimized item selection for experimentation with the goal to shorten the time for collecting randomized training data. We first present an overview of the optimized item selection problem and a multi-level optimization framework to solve it. The approach integrates techniques from discrete optimization, unsupervised clustering, and latent text embeddings. We then discuss how to incorporate optimized item selection with active learning as part of randomized exploration in an ongoing fashion.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

In recent years, random matrices have come to play a major role in computational mathematics, but most of the classical areas of random matrix theory remain the province of experts. Over the last decade, with the advent of matrix concentration inequalities, research has advanced to the point where we can conquer many (formerly) challenging problems with a page or two of arithmetic. The aim of this monograph is to describe the most successful methods from this area along with some interesting examples that these techniques can illuminate.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Randomized mechanisms can have good normative properties compared to their deterministic counterparts. However, randomized mechanisms are problematic in several ways such as in their verifiability. We propose here to derandomize such mechanisms by having agents play a game instead of tossing a coin. The game is designed so an agent's best action is to play randomly, and this play then injects ``randomness'' into the mechanism. This derandomization retains many of the good normative properties of the original randomized mechanism but gives a mechanism that is deterministic and easy, for instance, to audit. We consider three related methods to derandomize randomized mechanism in six different domains: voting, facility location, task allocation, school choice, peer selection, and resource allocation. We propose a number of novel derandomized mechanisms for these six domains with good normative properties. Each mechanism has a mixed Nash equilibrium in which agents play a modular arithmetic game with an uniform mixed strategy. In all but one mixed Nash equilibrium, agents report their preferences over the original problem sincerely. The derandomized methods are thus ``quasi-strategy proof''. In one domain, we additionally show that a new and desirable normative property emerges as a result of derandomization.

Experience replay is a key component in reinforcement learning for stabilizing learning and improving sample efficiency. Its typical implementation samples transitions with replacement from a replay buffer. In contrast, in supervised learning with a fixed dataset, it is a common practice to shuffle the dataset every epoch and consume data sequentially, which is called random reshuffling (RR). RR enjoys theoretically better convergence properties and has been shown to outperform with-replacement sampling empirically. To leverage the benefits of RR in reinforcement learning, we propose sampling methods that extend RR to experience replay, both in uniform and prioritized settings. We evaluate our sampling methods on Atari benchmarks, demonstrating their effectiveness in deep reinforcement learning.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Recent soft prompt research has tried to improve reasoning by inserting trained vectors into LLM inputs, yet whether the gain comes from the learned content or from the act of injection itself has not been carefully separated. We study Random Soft Prompts (RSPs), which drop the training step entirely and append a freshly drawn sequence of random embedding vectors to the input. Each RSP vector is sampled from an isotropic Gaussian fitted to the entrywise mean and variance of the pretrained embedding table; the sequence carries no learned content, and yet reaches accuracy comparable to optimized soft prompts on math reasoning benchmarks in several settings. The mechanism unfolds in two stages: because attention has to absorb a never-seen-before random position, the distribution over the first few generated tokens flattens and reasoning trajectories branch, and as generation continues this influence dilutes naturally so the response commits to a single completion. We show that during inference RSPs lift early-stage token diversity and, combined with temperature sampling, widen Pass@N, the probability that at least one out of N attempts is correct. Beyond inference, we carry the same effect into DAPO training and demonstrate practical gains. Our contributions are: (i) RSP isolates the simplest form of soft prompt -- training-free, freshly resampled -- providing a unified lens for the structural effect of injection that variants otherwise differing in training and form all share; (ii) a theoretical and empirical validation of the underlying mechanism; and (iii) an extension from inference to training.

A standard recipe for distilling the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) is to sample chains of thought from the model, keep those that reach the correct final answer, and fine-tune on the survivors. When sampling fails, a common fix shows the generator the gold answer and asks it to write a chain that reaches that answer. We show that this second step degrades the training data in a way that correctness filtering cannot catch. We run a controlled experiment that fixes the generator, the problem set, and the correctness filter, and varies only whether the chain is generated under answer-conditioning, the gold answer shown with a request to reach it. Training a strong instruction-tuned reasoning model on its own answer-conditioned chains sharply lowers its verifiable-reasoning accuracy. The loss grows with difficulty, reaching as much as about 27 points on the hardest competition problems. The mechanism is legible in the chains themselves, which rationalize backward from the shown answer instead of deriving it, with the early final-answer statement as the measurable symptom. The harm is a property of the data rather than the generator, read off unlabeled generations before any fine-tuning, ordering the penalty across eight thinking models from four families, and transferring across teacher families. A prompt ablation localizes it to the rationalize-toward instruction rather than the answer's bare visibility. The practical takeaway is to generate answer-blind, because no correctness filter can see this damage in the data.

We show that classifiers trained with random region proposals achieve state-of-the-art Open-world Object Detection (OWOD): they can not only maintain the accuracy of the known objects (w/ training labels), but also considerably improve the recall of unknown ones (w/o training labels). Specifically, we propose RandBox, a Fast R-CNN based architecture trained on random proposals at each training iteration, surpassing existing Faster R-CNN and Transformer based OWOD. Its effectiveness stems from the following two benefits introduced by randomness. First, as the randomization is independent of the distribution of the limited known objects, the random proposals become the instrumental variable that prevents the training from being confounded by the known objects. Second, the unbiased training encourages more proposal explorations by using our proposed matching score that does not penalize the random proposals whose prediction scores do not match the known objects. On two benchmarks: Pascal-VOC/MS-COCO and LVIS, RandBox significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in all metrics. We also detail the ablations on randomization and loss designs. Codes are available at https://github.com/scuwyh2000/RandBox.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Autonomous agents can increasingly propose ideas, modify code, and run experiments, creating an opportunity to accelerate scientific discovery using teams of collaborative AI researchers. To escape local minima in the discovery, we propose to encourage orthogonal exploration by constructing the team using agents with varying expertise. However, realizing this design requires more than diverse backgrounds. When experiments are costly, a team can test only a limited number of ideas, thereby creating the need to balance exploration and exploitation when selecting a subset of researchers to propose and execute new experiments. Furthermore, each result should shape what the team tries next. We therefore ask how AI researchers with different scientific backgrounds can build on one another's findings and sustain progress under a limited experimental budget. To address these challenges, we build a team of persistent AI researchers, each grounded in a different discipline, who keep private research histories, share experimental evidence, and receive research opportunities through adaptive allocation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this design by deploying the team to search for linear attention architectures, where it outperforms GDN2 at 1.3B scale on language modeling, common-sense reasoning, and synthetic and real-world retrieval tasks. In controlled comparisons, removing any single organizational component from our design yields markedly weaker discoveries: without disciplinary backgrounds, the search plateaus early; without private histories, researchers make less progress despite identical shared evidence; and uniform selection falls short of adaptive allocation within the same budget. These results suggest that sustained autonomous discovery depends not only on stronger agents, but also on who explores, what they remember, and how research effort is allocated.

We discover that DALLE-2 seems to have a hidden vocabulary that can be used to generate images with absurd prompts. For example, it seems that Apoploe vesrreaitais means birds and Contarra ccetnxniams luryca tanniounons (sometimes) means bugs or pests. We find that these prompts are often consistent in isolation but also sometimes in combinations. We present our black-box method to discover words that seem random but have some correspondence to visual concepts. This creates important security and interpretability challenges.

Despite its importance to experimental design, statistical power (the probability that, given a real effect, an experiment will reject the null hypothesis) has largely been ignored by the NLP community. Underpowered experiments make it more difficult to discern the difference between statistical noise and meaningful model improvements, and increase the chances of exaggerated findings. By meta-analyzing a set of existing NLP papers and datasets, we characterize typical power for a variety of settings and conclude that underpowered experiments are common in the NLP literature. In particular, for several tasks in the popular GLUE benchmark, small test sets mean that most attempted comparisons to state of the art models will not be adequately powered. Similarly, based on reasonable assumptions, we find that the most typical experimental design for human rating studies will be underpowered to detect small model differences, of the sort that are frequently studied. For machine translation, we find that typical test sets of 2000 sentences have approximately 75% power to detect differences of 1 BLEU point. To improve the situation going forward, we give an overview of best practices for power analysis in NLP and release a series of notebooks to assist with future power analyses.

How many experimental studies would have come to different conclusions had they been run on larger samples? I show how to estimate the expected number of statistically significant results that a set of experiments would have reported had their sample sizes all been counterfactually increased. The proposed deconvolution estimator is asymptotically normal and adjusts for publication bias. Unlike related methods, this approach requires no assumptions of any kind about the distribution of true intervention treatment effects and allows for point masses. Simulations find good coverage even when the t-score is only approximately normal. An application to randomized trials (RCTs) published in economics journals finds that doubling every sample would increase the power of t-tests by 7.2 percentage points on average. This effect is smaller than for non-RCTs and comparable to systematic replications in laboratory psychology where previous studies enabled more accurate power calculations. This suggests that RCTs are on average relatively insensitive to sample size increases. Research funders who wish to raise power should generally consider sponsoring better-measured and higher quality experiments -- rather than only larger ones.

Clinical trials are fundamental in developing new drugs, medical devices, and treatments. However, they are often time-consuming and have low success rates. Although there have been initial attempts to create large language models (LLMs) for clinical trial design and patient-trial matching, these models remain task-specific and not adaptable to diverse clinical trial tasks. To address this challenge, we propose a clinical trial foundation model named Panacea, designed to handle multiple tasks, including trial search, trial summarization, trial design, and patient-trial matching. We also assemble a large-scale dataset, named TrialAlign, of 793,279 trial documents and 1,113,207 trial-related scientific papers, to infuse clinical knowledge into the model by pre-training. We further curate TrialInstruct, which has 200,866 of instruction data for fine-tuning. These resources enable Panacea to be widely applicable for a range of clinical trial tasks based on user requirements. We evaluated Panacea on a new benchmark, named TrialPanorama, which covers eight clinical trial tasks. Our method performed the best on seven of the eight tasks compared to six cutting-edge generic or medicine-specific LLMs. Specifically, Panacea showed great potential to collaborate with human experts in crafting the design of eligibility criteria, study arms, and outcome measures, in multi-round conversations. In addition, Panacea achieved 14.42% improvement in patient-trial matching, 41.78% to 52.02% improvement in trial search, and consistently ranked at the top for five aspects of trial summarization. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of Panacea in clinical trials and establishes a comprehensive resource, including training data, model, and benchmark, for developing clinical trial foundation models, paving the path for AI-based clinical trial development.

We introduce a new type of test, called a Turing Experiment (TE), for evaluating how well a language model, such as GPT-3, can simulate different aspects of human behavior. Unlike the Turing Test, which involves simulating a single arbitrary individual, a TE requires simulating a representative sample of participants in human subject research. We give TEs that attempt to replicate well-established findings in prior studies. We design a methodology for simulating TEs and illustrate its use to compare how well different language models are able to reproduce classic economic, psycholinguistic, and social psychology experiments: Ultimatum Game, Garden Path Sentences, Milgram Shock Experiment, and Wisdom of Crowds. In the first three TEs, the existing findings were replicated using recent models, while the last TE reveals a "hyper-accuracy distortion" present in some language models.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

We design a suite of minimal algorithmic tasks that are a loose abstraction of open-ended real-world tasks. This allows us to cleanly and controllably quantify the creative limits of the present-day language model. Much like real-world tasks that require a creative, far-sighted leap of thought, our tasks require an implicit, open-ended stochastic planning step that either (a) discovers new connections in an abstract knowledge graph (like in wordplay, drawing analogies, or research) or (b) constructs new patterns (like in designing math problems or new proteins). In these tasks, we empirically and conceptually argue how next-token learning is myopic and memorizes excessively; comparatively, multi-token approaches, namely teacherless training and diffusion models, excel in producing diverse and original output. Secondly, in our tasks, we find that to elicit randomness from the Transformer without hurting coherence, it is better to inject noise right at the input layer (via a method we dub hash-conditioning) rather than defer to temperature sampling from the output layer. Thus, our work offers a principled, minimal test-bed for analyzing open-ended creative skills, and offers new arguments for going beyond next-token learning and softmax-based sampling. We make part of the code available under https://github.com/chenwu98/algorithmic-creativity

We propose prioritized unit propagation with periodic resetting, which is a simple but surprisingly effective algorithm for solving random SAT instances that are meant to be hard. In particular, an evaluation on the Random Track of the 2017 and 2018 SAT competitions shows that a basic prototype of this simple idea already ranks at second place in both years. We share this observation in the hope that it helps the SAT community better understand the hardness of random instances used in competitions and inspire other interesting ideas on SAT solving.

Quantum machine learning models have shown successful generalization performance even when trained with few data. In this work, through systematic randomization experiments, we show that traditional approaches to understanding generalization fail to explain the behavior of such quantum models. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art quantum neural networks accurately fit random states and random labeling of training data. This ability to memorize random data defies current notions of small generalization error, problematizing approaches that build on complexity measures such as the VC dimension, the Rademacher complexity, and all their uniform relatives. We complement our empirical results with a theoretical construction showing that quantum neural networks can fit arbitrary labels to quantum states, hinting at their memorization ability. Our results do not preclude the possibility of good generalization with few training data but rather rule out any possible guarantees based only on the properties of the model family. These findings expose a fundamental challenge in the conventional understanding of generalization in quantum machine learning and highlight the need for a paradigm shift in the design of quantum models for machine learning tasks.

This paper presents a parallel random-search method for reducing additive complexity in fast matrix multiplication. The approach replaces expensive exact evaluation with fast heuristic scoring, including the new Greedy-Intersections strategy. The method runs many independent common subexpression elimination processes in parallel, exploring the search space through random pair substitutions and diverse selection strategies while sharing promising partial solutions. Tested on 164 ternary-coefficient schemes, the method achieves lower addition counts than the state-of-the-art Greedy-Potential on 103 schemes, matches it on 59, and is outperformed on 2. For most schemes, it gives equal or better results while being much faster, making it practical for algorithm exploration. All software and results are open source.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

In their recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, "Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models," (Webb, Holyoak, and Lu, 2023) the authors argue that "large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems." In this response, we provide counterexamples of the letter string analogies. In our tests, GPT-3 fails to solve even the easiest variants of the problems presented in the original paper. Zero-shot reasoning is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. We do not see that evidence in our experiments. To strengthen claims of humanlike reasoning such as zero-shot reasoning, it is important that the field develop approaches that rule out data memorization.

Recent studies show that large language models (LLMs) can be instructed to effectively perform zero-shot passage re-ranking, in which the results of a first stage retrieval method, such as BM25, are rated and reordered to improve relevance. In this work, we improve LLM-based re-ranking by algorithmically selecting few-shot demonstrations to include in the prompt. Our analysis investigates the conditions where demonstrations are most helpful, and shows that adding even one demonstration is significantly beneficial. We propose a novel demonstration selection strategy based on difficulty rather than the commonly used semantic similarity. Furthermore, we find that demonstrations helpful for ranking are also effective at question generation. We hope our work will spur more principled research into question generation and passage ranking.

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

This work presents code to procedurally generate examples for the ARC training tasks. For each of the 400 tasks, an example generator following the transformation logic of the original examples was created. In effect, the assumed underlying distribution of examples for any given task was reverse engineered by implementing a means to sample from it. An attempt was made to cover an as large as reasonable space of possible examples for each task. That is, whenever the original examples of a given task may be limited in their diversity e.g. by having the dimensions of the grids, the set of symbols or number of objects constant or within tight bounds, even though the transformation does not require it, such constraints were lifted. Having access to not just a few examples per task, as the case for ARC, but instead very many, should enable a wide range of experiments that may be important stepping stones towards making leaps on the benchmark.

Significant work has been recently dedicated to the stochastic delayed bandit setting because of its relevance in applications. The applicability of existing algorithms is however restricted by the fact that strong assumptions are often made on the delay distributions, such as full observability, restrictive shape constraints, or uniformity over arms. In this work, we weaken them significantly and only assume that there is a bound on the tail of the delay. In particular, we cover the important case where the delay distributions vary across arms, and the case where the delays are heavy-tailed. Addressing these difficulties, we propose a simple but efficient UCB-based algorithm called the PatientBandits. We provide both problems-dependent and problems-independent bounds on the regret as well as performance lower bounds.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

We demonstrate that models trained only in simulation can be used to solve a manipulation problem of unprecedented complexity on a real robot. This is made possible by two key components: a novel algorithm, which we call automatic domain randomization (ADR) and a robot platform built for machine learning. ADR automatically generates a distribution over randomized environments of ever-increasing difficulty. Control policies and vision state estimators trained with ADR exhibit vastly improved sim2real transfer. For control policies, memory-augmented models trained on an ADR-generated distribution of environments show clear signs of emergent meta-learning at test time. The combination of ADR with our custom robot platform allows us to solve a Rubik's cube with a humanoid robot hand, which involves both control and state estimation problems. Videos summarizing our results are available: https://openai.com/blog/solving-rubiks-cube/

Evaluations are critical for understanding the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Fundamentally, evaluations are experiments; but the literature on evaluations has largely ignored the literature from other sciences on experiment analysis and planning. This article shows researchers with some training in statistics how to think about and analyze data from language model evaluations. Conceptualizing evaluation questions as having been drawn from an unseen super-population, we present formulas for analyzing evaluation data, measuring differences between two models, and planning an evaluation experiment. We make a number of specific recommendations for running language model evaluations and reporting experiment results in a way that minimizes statistical noise and maximizes informativeness.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

We introduce the concept of the self-referencing causal cycle (abbreviated RECALL) - a mechanism that enables large language models (LLMs) to bypass the limitations of unidirectional causality, which underlies a phenomenon known as the reversal curse. When an LLM is prompted with sequential data, it often fails to recall preceding context. For example, when we ask an LLM to recall the line preceding "O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave" in the U.S. National Anthem, it often fails to correctly return "Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there" - this is due to the reversal curse. It occurs because language models such as ChatGPT and Llama generate text based on preceding tokens, requiring facts to be learned and reproduced in a consistent token order. While the reversal curse is often viewed as a limitation, we offer evidence of an alternative view: it is not always an obstacle in practice. We find that RECALL is driven by what we designate as cycle tokens - sequences that connect different parts of the training data, enabling recall of preceding tokens from succeeding ones. Through rigorous probabilistic formalization and controlled experiments, we demonstrate how the cycles they induce influence a model's ability to reproduce information. To facilitate reproducibility, we provide our code and experimental details at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/remember-B0B8/.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

In this paper, we introduce Randomized Q-learning (RandQL), a novel randomized model-free algorithm for regret minimization in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). To the best of our knowledge, RandQL is the first tractable model-free posterior sampling-based algorithm. We analyze the performance of RandQL in both tabular and non-tabular metric space settings. In tabular MDPs, RandQL achieves a regret bound of order O(H^{5SAT}), where H is the planning horizon, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, and T is the number of episodes. For a metric state-action space, RandQL enjoys a regret bound of order O(H^{5/2} T^{(d_z+1)/(d_z+2)}), where d_z denotes the zooming dimension. Notably, RandQL achieves optimistic exploration without using bonuses, relying instead on a novel idea of learning rate randomization. Our empirical study shows that RandQL outperforms existing approaches on baseline exploration environments.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

In this book, I introduce the concepts of online learning through a modern view based on convex optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I attempted to unify all the literature as instantiations of Online Mirror Descent and Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (and their variants). I paid particular attention to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. Building on fundamental algorithms and concepts, I also cover advanced topics, including black-box reductions, saddle-point optimization, sequential investment, and non-stationary forms of regret analysis. Finally, I conclude with a selection of applications of online learning to domains far from it, such as generalization theory and concentration inequalities. I attempted to maintain an informal, yet mathematically rigorous, tone throughout the book. Moreover, all the included proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible. This also means that sometimes I have added one or two additional assumptions, just to simplify the proofs.

In this paper, we consider the problem of sleeping bandits with stochastic action sets and adversarial rewards. In this setting, in contrast to most work in bandits, the actions may not be available at all times. For instance, some products might be out of stock in item recommendation. The best existing efficient (i.e., polynomial-time) algorithms for this problem only guarantee an O(T^{2/3}) upper-bound on the regret. Yet, inefficient algorithms based on EXP4 can achieve O(T). In this paper, we provide a new computationally efficient algorithm inspired by EXP3 satisfying a regret of order O(T) when the availabilities of each action i in cA are independent. We then study the most general version of the problem where at each round available sets are generated from some unknown arbitrary distribution (i.e., without the independence assumption) and propose an efficient algorithm with O(2^K T) regret guarantee. Our theoretical results are corroborated with experimental evaluations.

We present a corpus of 5,000 richly annotated abstracts of medical articles describing clinical randomized controlled trials. Annotations include demarcations of text spans that describe the Patient population enrolled, the Interventions studied and to what they were Compared, and the Outcomes measured (the `PICO' elements). These spans are further annotated at a more granular level, e.g., individual interventions within them are marked and mapped onto a structured medical vocabulary. We acquired annotations from a diverse set of workers with varying levels of expertise and cost. We describe our data collection process and the corpus itself in detail. We then outline a set of challenging NLP tasks that would aid searching of the medical literature and the practice of evidence-based medicine.

We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size m=Θ(dlog n), ES attains tilde O(d^{3/2}sqrt n) high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for m independent Brownian motions. Intriguingly, this continuous-time lens is not forced; it appears natural--and perhaps necessary: the discrete-time problem seems to be asking for a continuous-time solution, and we know of no other way to obtain a sharp ES bound.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

Recent work has shown that distilling reasoning traces from a larger teacher model via supervised finetuning outperforms reinforcement learning with the smaller student model alone (Guo et al. 2025). However, there has not been a systematic study of what kind of reasoning demonstrations from the teacher are most effective in improving the student model's reasoning capabilities. In this work we curate high-quality "NaturalThoughts" by selecting reasoning traces from a strong teacher model based on a large pool of questions from NaturalReasoning (Yuan et al. 2025). We first conduct a systematic analysis of factors that affect distilling reasoning capabilities, in terms of sample efficiency and scalability for general reasoning tasks. We observe that simply scaling up data size with random sampling is a strong baseline with steady performance gains. Further, we find that selecting difficult examples that require more diverse reasoning strategies is more sample-efficient to transfer the teacher model's reasoning skills. Evaluated on both Llama and Qwen models, training with NaturalThoughts outperforms existing reasoning datasets such as OpenThoughts, LIMO, etc. on general STEM reasoning benchmarks including GPQA-Diamond, MMLU-Pro and SuperGPQA.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.