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Nov 2

OPE: Overcoming Information Saturation in Parallel Thinking via Outline-Guided Path Exploration

Parallel thinking has emerged as a new paradigm for large reasoning models (LRMs) in tackling complex problems. Recent methods leverage Reinforcement Learning (RL) to enhance parallel thinking, aiming to address the limitations in computational resources and effectiveness encountered with supervised fine-tuning. However, most existing studies primarily focus on optimizing the aggregation phase, with limited attention to the path exploration stage. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the optimization of parallel thinking under the Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) setting, and identify that the mutual information bottleneck among exploration paths fundamentally restricts overall performance. To address this, we propose Outline-Guided Path Exploration (OPE), which explicitly partitions the solution space by generating diverse reasoning outlines prior to parallel path reasoning, thereby reducing information redundancy and improving the diversity of information captured across exploration paths. We implement OPE with an iterative RL strategy that optimizes outline planning and outline-guided reasoning independently. Extensive experiments across multiple challenging mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that OPE effectively improves reasoning performance in different aggregation strategies, enabling LRMs to more reliably discover correct solutions.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 9 2

KnFu: Effective Knowledge Fusion

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a prominent alternative to the traditional centralized learning approach. Generally speaking, FL is a decentralized approach that allows for collaborative training of Machine Learning (ML) models across multiple local nodes, ensuring data privacy and security while leveraging diverse datasets. Conventional FL, however, is susceptible to gradient inversion attacks, restrictively enforces a uniform architecture on local models, and suffers from model heterogeneity (model drift) due to non-IID local datasets. To mitigate some of these challenges, the new paradigm of Federated Knowledge Distillation (FKD) has emerged. FDK is developed based on the concept of Knowledge Distillation (KD), which involves extraction and transfer of a large and well-trained teacher model's knowledge to lightweight student models. FKD, however, still faces the model drift issue. Intuitively speaking, not all knowledge is universally beneficial due to the inherent diversity of data among local nodes. This calls for innovative mechanisms to evaluate the relevance and effectiveness of each client's knowledge for others, to prevent propagation of adverse knowledge. In this context, the paper proposes Effective Knowledge Fusion (KnFu) algorithm that evaluates knowledge of local models to only fuse semantic neighbors' effective knowledge for each client. The KnFu is a personalized effective knowledge fusion scheme for each client, that analyzes effectiveness of different local models' knowledge prior to the aggregation phase. Comprehensive experiments were performed on MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets illustrating effectiveness of the proposed KnFu in comparison to its state-of-the-art counterparts. A key conclusion of the work is that in scenarios with large and highly heterogeneous local datasets, local training could be preferable to knowledge fusion-based solutions.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 18, 2024

Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

  • 6 authors
·
May 12, 2020

Phase Transition for Budgeted Multi-Agent Synergy

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 24

PHOEBI: An Open-World Benchmark for Bacterial Identification in Phase-Contrast Microscopy

Optical microscopy (OM) enables rapid, label-free imaging of live bacteria and is the standard instrument for species identification across clinical, environmental, and industrial microbiology. Real samples, however, are routinely polymicrobial and may contain organisms never seen during training, and no computer-vision benchmark evaluates multi-label species identification from phase-contrast microscopy (PCM) of such mixtures. We introduce Phase-contrast Optical bEnchmark for Bacterial Identification (PHOEBI), a wet-lab-prepared dataset of 120{,}000 PCM images covering 40 combinations of six rod-shaped species, together with a leave-combinations-out (LCO) protocol that holds out entire species combinations, mirroring a model trained on catalogued mixtures that must recognise new ones. Under LCO, gradient-trained per-image classifiers, from fine-tuned backbones to attention-based multiple-instance learning, collapse on unseen combinations despite high in-distribution accuracy, and the failure lies in how per-image predictions are aggregated rather than in the visual representation. We propose three lightweight anchor-based decoders that read each species' presence against fixed geometric prototypes over a shared frozen tile-feature pool, and they remain stable under the same shift. Without additional training, the same features also support open-set rejection of unseen species and the discovery of a new class from unlabeled test images, with negligible disruption to the known classes.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 26

HAMIL: Hierarchical Aggregation-Based Multi-Instance Learning for Microscopy Image Classification

Multi-instance learning is common for computer vision tasks, especially in biomedical image processing. Traditional methods for multi-instance learning focus on designing feature aggregation methods and multi-instance classifiers, where the aggregation operation is performed either in feature extraction or learning phase. As deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve great success in image processing via automatic feature learning, certain feature aggregation mechanisms need to be incorporated into common DNN architecture for multi-instance learning. Moreover, flexibility and reliability are crucial considerations to deal with varying quality and number of instances. In this study, we propose a hierarchical aggregation network for multi-instance learning, called HAMIL. The hierarchical aggregation protocol enables feature fusion in a defined order, and the simple convolutional aggregation units lead to an efficient and flexible architecture. We assess the model performance on two microscopy image classification tasks, namely protein subcellular localization using immunofluorescence images and gene annotation using spatial gene expression images. The experimental results show that HAMIL outperforms the state-of-the-art feature aggregation methods and the existing models for addressing these two tasks. The visualization analyses also demonstrate the ability of HAMIL to focus on high-quality instances.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 16, 2021

Unsupervised MR Motion Artifact Deep Learning using Outlier-Rejecting Bootstrap Aggregation

Recently, deep learning approaches for MR motion artifact correction have been extensively studied. Although these approaches have shown high performance and reduced computational complexity compared to classical methods, most of them require supervised training using paired artifact-free and artifact-corrupted images, which may prohibit its use in many important clinical applications. For example, transient severe motion (TSM) due to acute transient dyspnea in Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MR is difficult to control and model for paired data generation. To address this issue, here we propose a novel unsupervised deep learning scheme through outlier-rejecting bootstrap subsampling and aggregation. This is inspired by the observation that motions usually cause sparse k-space outliers in the phase encoding direction, so k-space subsampling along the phase encoding direction can remove some outliers and the aggregation step can further improve the results from the reconstruction network. Our method does not require any paired data because the training step only requires artifact-free images. Furthermore, to address the smoothing from potential bias to the artifact-free images, the network is trained in an unsupervised manner using optimal transport driven cycleGAN. We verify that our method can be applied for artifact correction from simulated motion as well as real motion from TSM successfully, outperforming existing state-of-the-art deep learning methods.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 11, 2020

CATANet: Efficient Content-Aware Token Aggregation for Lightweight Image Super-Resolution

Transformer-based methods have demonstrated impressive performance in low-level visual tasks such as Image Super-Resolution (SR). However, its computational complexity grows quadratically with the spatial resolution. A series of works attempt to alleviate this problem by dividing Low-Resolution images into local windows, axial stripes, or dilated windows. SR typically leverages the redundancy of images for reconstruction, and this redundancy appears not only in local regions but also in long-range regions. However, these methods limit attention computation to content-agnostic local regions, limiting directly the ability of attention to capture long-range dependency. To address these issues, we propose a lightweight Content-Aware Token Aggregation Network (CATANet). Specifically, we propose an efficient Content-Aware Token Aggregation module for aggregating long-range content-similar tokens, which shares token centers across all image tokens and updates them only during the training phase. Then we utilize intra-group self-attention to enable long-range information interaction. Moreover, we design an inter-group cross-attention to further enhance global information interaction. The experimental results show that, compared with the state-of-the-art cluster-based method SPIN, our method achieves superior performance, with a maximum PSNR improvement of 0.33dB and nearly double the inference speed.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 10, 2025 1

hist2RNA: An efficient deep learning architecture to predict gene expression from breast cancer histopathology images

Gene expression can be used to subtype breast cancer with improved prediction of risk of recurrence and treatment responsiveness over that obtained using routine immunohistochemistry (IHC). However, in the clinic, molecular profiling is primarily used for ER+ breast cancer, which is costly, tissue destructive, requires specialized platforms and takes several weeks to obtain a result. Deep learning algorithms can effectively extract morphological patterns in digital histopathology images to predict molecular phenotypes quickly and cost-effectively. We propose a new, computationally efficient approach called hist2RNA inspired by bulk RNA-sequencing techniques to predict the expression of 138 genes (incorporated from six commercially available molecular profiling tests), including luminal PAM50 subtype, from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images (WSIs). The training phase involves the aggregation of extracted features for each patient from a pretrained model to predict gene expression at the patient level using annotated H&E images from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, n=335). We demonstrate successful gene prediction on a held-out test set (n = 160, corr = 0.82 across patients, corr = 0.29 across genes) and perform exploratory analysis on an external tissue microarray (TMA) dataset (n = 498) with known IHC and survival information. Our model is able to predict gene expression and luminal PAM50 subtype (Luminal A versus Luminal B) on the TMA dataset with prognostic significance for overall survival in univariate analysis (c-index = 0.56, hazard ratio = 2.16 (95% CI 1.12-3.06), p < 5 x 10-3), and independent significance in multivariate analysis incorporating standard clinicopathological variables (c-index = 0.65, hazard ratio = 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.68), p < 5 x 10-3).

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 10, 2023

Agentic Neural Networks: Self-Evolving Multi-Agent Systems via Textual Backpropagation

Leveraging multiple Large Language Models(LLMs) has proven effective for addressing complex, high-dimensional tasks, but current approaches often rely on static, manually engineered multi-agent configurations. To overcome these constraints, we present the Agentic Neural Network(ANN), a framework that conceptualizes multi-agent collaboration as a layered neural network architecture. In this design, each agent operates as a node, and each layer forms a cooperative "team" focused on a specific subtask. Agentic Neural Network follows a two-phase optimization strategy: (1) Forward Phase-Drawing inspiration from neural network forward passes, tasks are dynamically decomposed into subtasks, and cooperative agent teams with suitable aggregation methods are constructed layer by layer. (2) Backward Phase-Mirroring backpropagation, we refine both global and local collaboration through iterative feedback, allowing agents to self-evolve their roles, prompts, and coordination. This neuro-symbolic approach enables ANN to create new or specialized agent teams post-training, delivering notable gains in accuracy and adaptability. Across four benchmark datasets, ANN surpasses leading multi-agent baselines under the same configurations, showing consistent performance improvements. Our findings indicate that ANN provides a scalable, data-driven framework for multi-agent systems, combining the collaborative capabilities of LLMs with the efficiency and flexibility of neural network principles. We plan to open-source the entire framework.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 10, 2025

SAMGPT: Text-free Graph Foundation Model for Multi-domain Pre-training and Cross-domain Adaptation

Graphs are able to model interconnected entities in many online services, supporting a wide range of applications on the Web. This raises an important question: How can we train a graph foundational model on multiple source domains and adapt to an unseen target domain? A major obstacle is that graphs from different domains often exhibit divergent characteristics. Some studies leverage large language models to align multiple domains based on textual descriptions associated with the graphs, limiting their applicability to text-attributed graphs. For text-free graphs, a few recent works attempt to align different feature distributions across domains, while generally neglecting structural differences. In this work, we propose a novel Structure Alignment framework for text-free Multi-domain Graph Pre-Training and cross-domain adaptation (SAMGPT). It is designed to learn multi-domain knowledge from graphs originating in multiple source domains, which can then be adapted to address applications in an unseen target domain. Specifically, we introduce a set of structure tokens to harmonize structure-based aggregation across source domains during the pre-training phase. Next, for cross-domain adaptation, we design dual prompts, namely, holistic prompts and specific prompts, which adapt unified multi-domain structural knowledge and fine-grained, domain-specific information, respectively, to a target domain. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on seven public datasets to evaluate and analyze the effectiveness of SAMGPT.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 7, 2025

Scoring Higher, Answering Worse: Mitigating Reward Hacking in Rubric-Based RL via Protocol-Level Rubrics

Rubric-based reinforcement learning (Rubric-RL) trains language models where no verifier exists. A judge checks each criterion of a rubric, and the verdicts are aggregated into a reward, most often by a weighted sum. We show that this additive aggregation is the weak point. Under a sum, criteria compensate for one another: a policy that misses the one decision that matters can buy the points back with advice nobody asked for. On clinical consultation, such a policy scores higher and answers worse. Rubric coverage rises while appropriateness on held-out physician criteria falls below the untrained model. The medical criteria are not to blame. Grouped so that they must hold together, the same criteria, unchanged to the word, recover a third of the loss; shorter answers recover almost none. We therefore propose Protocol-level Rubrics (ProRubric), which keeps what the criteria ask for and changes how they are aggregated. It groups a checklist into a few protocol-level dimensions. A dimension counts only when all of its criteria hold and its failure clause does not fire. The grouping is done once, offline, and leaves the optimizer unchanged. ProRubric raises appropriateness by 10.8 points without losing coverage and has the best seven-benchmark average at both scales. Reward validity is set not only by what a rubric verifies, but by how it aggregates. Code is available at https://github.com/Estrellajer/ProRubric

ByteDance ByteDance
·
Sep 29 1

What are the best systems? New perspectives on NLP Benchmarking

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 8, 2022

Byzantine Accountability Without Consensus: Strong Eventual Consistency for Non-Associative, Stochastic, Robust Aggregation

Byzantine-robust aggregation rules such as multi-Krum assume a central coordinator, and decentralising them is obstructed by the rules themselves: they are globally coupled, non-associative, and discontinuous, so an ulpscale perturbation can flip the selected subset, moving the output by a non-vanishing amount. None of this prevents coordinator-free replication, because a robust rule needs no agreed order of contributions, only an agreed set and an agreed exclusion predicate, both of which converge without consensus. ACFA (Accountable Consensus-Free Aggregation) replicates a content-addressed OR-Set of signed contributions and a grow-only set of self-authenticating equivocation proofs, offline-verifiable by anyone. Aggregation is a deterministic pure function of the converged product state: fixed-point integer arithmetic over a hash-canonical order, ties broken by content hash. We prove that any pure function of a converged product of CRDTs (non-monotone, non-associative, or stochastic) inherits Strong Eventual Consistency, together with its converse; the contribution is the composition of a data lattice with an evidence lattice applied to a robust selector, not the elementary lifting step. A prototype (10 nodes, 3 Byzantine) passes 16/16 falsification checks: byte-identical roots under adversarial gossip, deterministic re-convergence after late equivocation proofs, partition recovery, and three byte-identity-breaking ablations. The guarantee is consistency, not accuracy; robustness is imported, conditional on 2f + 3 admitted contributions (at most f Byzantine) and a stated quantisation-margin condition.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 11

AttrSeg: Open-Vocabulary Semantic Segmentation via Attribute Decomposition-Aggregation

Open-vocabulary semantic segmentation is a challenging task that requires segmenting novel object categories at inference time. Recent studies have explored vision-language pre-training to handle this task, but suffer from unrealistic assumptions in practical scenarios, i.e., low-quality textual category names. For example, this paradigm assumes that new textual categories will be accurately and completely provided, and exist in lexicons during pre-training. However, exceptions often happen when encountering ambiguity for brief or incomplete names, new words that are not present in the pre-trained lexicons, and difficult-to-describe categories for users. To address these issues, this work proposes a novel attribute decomposition-aggregation framework, AttrSeg, inspired by human cognition in understanding new concepts. Specifically, in the decomposition stage, we decouple class names into diverse attribute descriptions to complement semantic contexts from multiple perspectives. Two attribute construction strategies are designed: using large language models for common categories, and involving manually labeling for human-invented categories. In the aggregation stage, we group diverse attributes into an integrated global description, to form a discriminative classifier that distinguishes the target object from others. One hierarchical aggregation architecture is further proposed to achieve multi-level aggregations, leveraging the meticulously designed clustering module. The final results are obtained by computing the similarity between aggregated attributes and images embeddings. To evaluate the effectiveness, we annotate three types of datasets with attribute descriptions, and conduct extensive experiments and ablation studies. The results show the superior performance of attribute decomposition-aggregation.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 31, 2023

Aggregate in the Advantage, Not the Ratio: A Canonical-Form Analysis of Cooperative Multi-Agent Policy Optimization

Multi-agent policy optimization, exemplified by PPO-based methods, is a key branch of cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). A central design question is how many neighboring agentsIn this paper, "neighbors" refer not only to physical proximity but also to agents whose actions influence one another. to aggregate in order to effectively utilize global information for cooperation. This decision must be made along two dimensions: in the advantage (which agents' rewards contribute to the credit signal) and in the ratio (which agents' likelihood ratios form the clipped importance weight). Existing methods occupy scattered, underexplored points on these two axes: IPPO treats both separately; MAPPO pairs a team-level advantage with per-agent ratios; HAPPO employs sequential ratios with per-agent advantages; and single-agent reductions operating on factorized joint policies aggregate both into fully joint products. We formalize these two design choices as support matrices SA and SR, and prove a canonical structure: the expected multi-agent policy optimization objective depends on the pair (SA,SR) only through their matrix product tS=SRSA. This yields two key consequences: (i) Redundancy: the two support matrices are interchangeable with respect to the signal, meaning neither aggregation pattern is inherently superior.(ii) Variance Ordering: the advantage aggregates rewards as a sum (additive variance with an interior bias-variance optimum at the coupling neighborhood), whereas the ratio aggregates likelihood ratios as a product (multiplicative variance that grows exponentially with support size, with no accompanying bias reduction). The resulting design principle is unambiguous: aggregate neighbors in the advantage, sized to the coupling neighborhood, and keep the ratio per-agent.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 19

Body-Reservoir Governance in Repeated Games: Embodied Decision-Making, Dynamic Sentinel Adaptation, and Complexity-Regularized Optimization

Standard game theory explains cooperation in repeated games through conditional strategies such as Tit-for-Tat (TfT), but these require continuous computation that imposes physical costs on embodied agents. We propose a three-layer Body-Reservoir Governance (BRG) architecture: (1) a body reservoir (echo state network) whose d-dimensional state performs implicit inference over interaction history, serving as both decision-maker and anomaly detector, (2) a cognitive filter providing costly strategic tools activated on demand, and (3) a metacognitive governance layer with receptivity parameter αin [0,1]. At full body governance (α=1), closed-loop dynamics satisfy a self-consistency equation: cooperation is expressed as the reservoir's fixed point, not computed. Strategy complexity cost is defined as the KL divergence between the reservoir's state distribution and its habituated baseline. Body governance reduces this cost, with action variance decreasing up to 1600times with dimension d. A dynamic sentinel generates a composite discomfort signal from the reservoir's own state, driving adaptive α(t): near baseline during cooperation, rapidly dropping upon defection to activate cognitive retaliation. Overriding the body incurs thermodynamic cost proportional to internal state distortion. The sentinel achieves the highest payoff across all conditions, outperforming static body governance, TfT, and EMA baselines. A dimension sweep (d in {5,ldots,100}) shows implicit inference scales with bodily richness (23times to 1600times variance reduction), attributable to reservoir dynamics. A phase diagram in (d, τ_{env}) space reveals governance regime transitions near d approx 20. The framework reinterprets cooperation as the minimum-dissipation response of an adapted dynamical system -- emergent from embodied dynamics rather than computed.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 24

Test-Time Compute for Tabular Foundation Models: Mechanisms, Gains, and Limits

Which forms of test-time compute improve the predictions of strong pretrained tabular foundation models (TFMs)? We systematically study this along three axes: adaptation, aggregation, and context construction. Our evaluation spans modern TFMs across the TabArena benchmark, supplemented by experiments on wide and large-scale tables from OpenML. For adaptation, we introduce DiagScale, a diagonal query-key similarity update. It trains only 0.003-0.03% of model parameters and achieves gains comparable to full fine-tuning across three independently pretrained backbones. For aggregation, both pool composition and selection strategy matter. TabPFN-3 already averages predictions from different preprocessing variants of the same data, and adding more such predictions yields diminishing returns. With a broader pool of 96 configurations, greedy selection reduces error by 2.4% relative to the default predictor, but uniform averaging increases error. For context construction, attention-guided retrieval improves TabPFN-3's predictions on some large tables and supports source pools beyond the full context memory limit. The context expansion methods we test yield no consistent improvement. Taken together, our results suggest that adaptation and selective aggregation yield consistent benchmark-level gains. The benefits of context construction depend more on the task and data regime. Adaptation and aggregation over the same backbone yield further gains when combined, but require substantially more computation than default inference. These trade-offs motivate choosing strategies according to the available computation budget. Code is available at https://github.com/kanghui-learning/test-time-compute-for-tabular-foundation-models.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 7

Measuring What the Crawler Sees: Discovery Curves, Core Persistence, and Shell Dynamics in Longitudinal Web Crawls

A longitudinal web crawl is a sequence of partial samples of an evolving URL population. Pairwise containment between two crawls is the standard probe; under a simple urn model of the crawl -- each round samples a fraction of the URLs and replaces a fraction -- it recovers two interpretable rates, per-round survival α and coverage c, but treats the population as uniform and consumes one pair at a time. In this work, we define a formal language for talking about a crawl. We extend this analysis with the discovery curve U(s, T), the cumulative URL footprint over a sliding window of T crawls starting at s, which under the same urn model is also a closed-form function of (α, c). Containment and the discovery curve are then two projections of one process: independent fits agree on (α, c) when the urn is homogeneous, so any disagreement is itself a measurement. Applied to Common Crawl (2020--2025, domain granularity) and to the German Academic Web (GAW, URL granularity), the two projections disagree on both archives, and a two-component urn with a persistent core fraction κ alongside shell parameters (α_partial, c_partial) reconciles the disagreement. A residual on c_partial remains, signaling that the shell itself is not homogeneous; κ is recorded as the scalar entry point to a rank-resolved generalization, which is left to follow-up work. web archive \and crawl coverage \and discovery curve \and urn model \and two-component model \and URL lifetime

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 14

Assessing innovation in the nascent value chains of climate-mitigating technologies

Accelerating climate-tech innovation in the formative stage of the technology life cycle is crucial to meeting climate policy goals. During this period, competing technologies are often undergoing major technical improvements within a nascent value chain. We analyze this formative stage for 14 climate-tech sectors using a dataset of 4,172 North American firms receiving 12,929 early-stage private investments between 2006 and 2021. Investments in these firms reveal that commercialization occurs in five distinct product clusters across the value chain. Only 15% of firms develop end products (i.e., downstream products bought by consumers), while 59% support these end products through components, manufacturing processes, or optimization products, and 26% develop business services. Detailed analysis of the temporal evolution of investments reveals the driving forces behind the technologies that commercialize, such as innovation spillovers, coalescence around a dominant design, and flexible regulatory frameworks. We identify three patterns of innovation: emerging innovation (e.g., agriculture), characterized by recent growth in private investments across most product clusters and spillover from other sectors; ongoing innovation (e.g., energy storage), characterized by multiple waves of investments in evolving products; and maturing innovation (e.g., energy efficiency), characterized by a dominant end product with a significant share of investments in optimization and services. Understanding the development of nascent value chains can inform policy design to best support scaling of climate-tech by identifying underfunded elements in the value chain and supporting development of a full value chain rather than only end products.

  • 4 authors
·
May 14, 2025

Connectome-Based Modeling of Mutation-Specific Amyloid-β Aggregation in Familial Alzheimer's Disease

Familial amyloid-β (Aβ) variants alter aggregation kinetics, but their interaction with structural brain connectivity remains incompletely understood. We developed a mutation-aware mechanistic model coupling a coarse-grained monomer--oligomer--fibril aggregation--fragmentation system to graph diffusion on the 540-node Budapest Reference Connectome component. Experimental Aβ_{42} nucleation scores scaled primary nucleation rates for seven variants relative to wild type. Robustness was examined using mutation-score uncertainty, alternative kinetic mappings, global sensitivity analysis, seed and edge-weight perturbations, degree-preserving randomized connectomes, spatial propagation analysis, synthetic ABC-SMC parameter recovery, posterior prediction, and Chemical Langevin simulations. E22G showed the earliest threshold crossing and greatest cumulative oligomer burden, whereas A2V was delayed under the selected mapping. Mutation rankings persisted across tested network perturbations, although regional burden patterns depended on topology. Connectome distance from seed regions was associated with later oligomer arrival (Spearman ρapprox0.92). Under inferred parameter uncertainty, the mean timing-rank correlation was 0.990 and cumulative-burden ordering was preserved in every posterior draw, while exact peak-amplitude ordering was less stable. Stochastic ensemble medians retained the deterministic ordering despite overlap among trajectories. Within this proof-of-concept framework, mutation-dependent kinetics primarily influence aggregation timing and cumulative burden, while connectivity shapes spatial propagation. Nominal background rates, model-time units, and synthetic parameter recovery limit interpretation to mechanistic comparisons rather than clinically calibrated prediction.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 6

A Topological and Operator Algebraic Framework for Asynchronous Lattice Dynamical Systems

I introduce a novel mathematical framework integrating topological dynamics, operator algebras, and ergodic geometry to study lattices of asynchronous metric dynamical systems. Each node in the lattice carries an internal flow represented by a one-parameter family of operators, evolving on its own time scale. I formalize stratified state spaces capturing multiple levels of synchronized behavior, define an asynchronous evolution metric that quantifies phase-offset distances between subsystems, and characterize emergent coherent topologies arising when subsystems synchronize. Within this framework, I develop formal operators for the evolution of each subsystem and give precise conditions under which phase-aligned synchronization occurs across the lattice. The main results include: (1) the existence and uniqueness of coherent (synchronized) states under a contractive coupling condition, (2) stability of these coherent states and criteria for their emergence as a collective phase transition in a continuous operator topology, and (3) the influence of symmetries, with group-invariant coupling leading to flow-invariant synchrony subspaces and structured cluster dynamics. Proofs are given for each theorem, demonstrating full mathematical rigor. In a final section, I discuss hypothetical applications of this framework to symbolic lattice systems (e.g. subshifts), to invariant group actions on dynamical lattices, and to operator fields over stratified manifolds in the spirit of noncommutative geometry. Throughout, I write in the first person to emphasize the exploratory nature of this work. The paper avoids any reference to cosmology or observers, focusing instead on clean, formal mathematics suitable for a broad array of dynamical systems.

  • 1 authors
·
May 14, 2025